Author Topic: Ethnicity - how far back does it go  (Read 1441 times)

Offline Matriach

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Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« on: Saturday 28 January 23 22:44 GMT (UK) »
I understand that the ethnicity percentages given on Ancestry are within a range, but I do not fully understand their significance in relation to time. I thought I read somewhere that only the DNA from 5 or 6 generations back could be measured with any accuracy, but perhaps I imagined this.
From my paternal side I have inherited 10% Swedish DNA (it was 2% Norwegian and 8% Swedish). Only 2 close matches have more but that is I believe because we are related through both of my paternal grandmothers. Is this amount of DNA relevant to ancestors I could possibly find in church records? With one or two exceptions my paternal ancestors seem to have lived in Sussex or the Hants/Sussex border since the 17C.
McClinton, McClintock - Ireland, Wigtownshire, Ayrshire
McCaskie - Ireland, Wigtownshire
McGill - Ayrshire
McDonald, McArthur, McKenzie - Nairnshire
Dridge/Jones - Hants/Sussex borders
Gostelow - everywhere
Lawrence/O'Brien/Moody - POrtsmouth

Offline Ruskie

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Re: Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« Reply #1 on: Sunday 29 January 23 00:08 GMT (UK) »
 Average estimate seems to be 5 to 8 generations but it probably varies.

https://www.genealogyexplained.com/how-many-generations-does-dna-go-back/

Don’t take too much notice of ethnicity percentages. At best they are a rough guide. You could drive yourself mad looking for your 10% Swedish, and those percentages are going to change over time as more people take DNA tests.  :)


Offline Ruskie

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Re: Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« Reply #2 on: Sunday 29 January 23 00:14 GMT (UK) »
This might put it into perspective - Ancestry’s regions and number of people in the reference panels:

https://support.ancestry.com/s/article/AncestryDNA-Reference-Panel?language=en_US

As you can see, the numbers are not large in many cases, and regions are very general (and broad) in some examples, so not surprising some ethicities are lumped in with others. It’s more of a “best guess” really.

Offline Biggles50

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Re: Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« Reply #3 on: Sunday 29 January 23 08:41 GMT (UK) »
Let’s get real with the Ethnicity Estimate.

Does is serve any useful purpose in terms of our Family History?

Does it loosen the bricks in that Wall?

Does it answer who my Great Great Grandfather was?

Does it tell me who I am?

Is it reliable?

No, to all then!

Is it a bit of fun, yes.

Do also remember, since our DNA year dot, our physical Ethnicity has not changed what has changed and changed out of all representation has been what Ancestry displays.

Now the rub, has Ancestry sold a shedload of DNA tests to people who are only interested in what it displays as their Ethnicity, undoubtedly.

Is it a very successful marketing ploy?


Offline Matriach

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Re: Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« Reply #4 on: Sunday 29 January 23 10:00 GMT (UK) »
Hi
Thanks for the replies to my post. I think I'll forget about those Scandinavians and continue with the evidence I find in actual church records (among others). I agree about the frustration of having a close match that has no family tree but wants only to prove their ethnicity - it can be fun though, as when my half Scottish daughter found that she had a Maori second cousin (i.e first cousin to her father). Messaging has shown how that came about......
Matriach
McClinton, McClintock - Ireland, Wigtownshire, Ayrshire
McCaskie - Ireland, Wigtownshire
McGill - Ayrshire
McDonald, McArthur, McKenzie - Nairnshire
Dridge/Jones - Hants/Sussex borders
Gostelow - everywhere
Lawrence/O'Brien/Moody - POrtsmouth

Offline phil57

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Re: Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« Reply #5 on: Sunday 29 January 23 11:24 GMT (UK) »
You are confusing two different DNA scenarios. Matching with descendants of common ancestors is accurate and indisputable above match lengths of about 16-20 cM. With match lengths less than that, the chances that the purported match is false increase significantly the lower the match length, so that at 6 cM (which is the lowest match length that most DNA testing companies will report) there may be around a 50% likelihood that the proposed match isn't a genuine match at all.

The reasons for that are complex and varied, but because match lengths to ancestors decrease with successive generations, and therefore the generational distance between current relatives, it is generally accepted that a genuine match can only be determined over 5 to 8 generations at an absolute maximum.

But ethnicity estimates are a different (pseudo) science. They do not attempt to match you with relatives who have descended from a common ancestor within the last 5 - 8 generations. Instead, the theory is that segments of your DNA are compared to segments which the testing companies believe may be commonly found in groups of people (whether more recently related or not) who originated from particular regions within the last several hundred to a few thousand years ago.

As previous replies have said, the definitions of particular regions differ between different testing companies. The reference populations that are used to determine those regions are incredibly small in comparison to the actual populations of those regions - often only a few hundred people and in some cases fewer than ten. Ethnicity estimations to continental level are considered to be more reliable than those to individual country level or even regions within countries, and again, lower percentages allocated to particular regions are likely to be more suspect, so a supposition that you have 45% English ethnicity is quite likely to have some bearing of truth, whereas an indication that you inherited 2% Swedish ethnicity may well be totally incorrect.

So the assertion by one testing company that my ethnicity (as determined from my transferred to them Ancestry DNA test) is 98% European is, I think, quite likely to be reasonably accurate, but is it at all useful? Most people could probably give me an estimate with a similar degree of accuracy just by looking at me ;)

Whether you choose to believe and place any reliance on your ethnicity estimates is your choice. There may be a degree of expectation bias involved in people who claim that they are accurate. Personally, as already said, I choose to treat them as an informative but not necessarily accurate ploy to sell DNA tests to people who would otherwise have no interest in testing and the hard work involved in researching and identifying relatives descended from common ancestors.

I prefer to concentrate on using DNA matches with other people to further (and confirm or disprove) my research into my own ancestral lineage.
Stokes - London and Essex
Hodges - Somerset
Murden - Notts
Humphries/Humphreys from Montgomeryshire

Offline Ruskie

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Re: Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« Reply #6 on: Sunday 29 January 23 11:30 GMT (UK) »
Posted in error.

Offline HughC

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Re: Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« Reply #7 on: Sunday 29 January 23 12:36 GMT (UK) »
Thank you, Biggles and Phil.

I wish you could get the message across to a few more people!

Judging by the number of unexplained matches, I'm wondering what use a DNA test is at all.
Bagwell of Kilmore & Lisronagh, Co. Tipperary;  Beatty from Enniskillen;  Brown from Preston, Lancs.;  Burke of Ballydugan, Co. Galway;  Casement in the IoM and Co. Antrim;  Davison of Knockboy, Broughshane;  Frobisher;  Guillemard;  Harrison in Co. Antrim and Dublin;  Jones around Burton Pedwardine, Lincs.;  Lindesay of Loughry;  Newcomen of Camlagh, Co. Roscommon;  Shield;  Watson from Kidderminster;  Wilkinson from Leeds

Offline Zaphod99

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Re: Ethnicity - how far back does it go
« Reply #8 on: Sunday 29 January 23 23:13 GMT (UK) »
DNA ethnicity estimates can be unreliable for a number of reasons. One reason is that the reference populations used to determine ethnicity estimates may not accurately reflect the genetic diversity of a particular population or region. Additionally, many commercial DNA testing companies use algorithms that are not based on rigorous scientific research and may not take into account the complexities of genetic ancestry. Furthermore, the geographic regions used to define ethnicity in DNA testing are often arbitrary and may not align with the cultural, historical, or political boundaries of a particular group. As a result, many DNA ethnicity estimates may not accurately reflect an individual's true genetic ancestry.

Mrs Zaph