Where is the connection??

[nicholpope]

Hi

I am attempting to locate the father of a friend using DNA. I have identified two family trees by matching up DNA connections. These are:

Carter: https://dnapainter.com/tools/probability/view/cb9b69e59db891ed
Dean: https://dnapainter.com/tools/probability/view/6ef9899346a0e147

I think that with Carter's this places my friend as a great-grandson of George Carter 1814 and rose crowfoot.

However the Dean's side I am not sure. There are two 1st cousins, that decent from Daniel Walker Dean, one has 19cm shared with my friend and the other 131cm. Would you remove the 131cm connection as this may be a red herring?

Then the children of Thomas Montgomery Dean 1825, descendants all on the same line range from 12 to 117cm. Should these not be similar to each other?

Thank you

[Biggles50]

The many hypothesis shown do not support your conclusion.

Hypothesis 47 lists them as 3xGreat Grandchild and it has by far the highest ranking score attributed to it.

Look at the others at this generation and there are many with a weighting of over 200,000.  Now the but, to accept hypothesis 47 the person would likely have been born about 1985 and so a whole generation out hence this adds to my conclusion.

To be the Great Grandchild of George b1815 they would need to have been born c1890 but as you know that the birth took place in 1948 and that the hypothesis at the c1890 level have weightings of 3900 so far lower than others.

Hence my conclusion would be that WATO is flawed for many of the hypothesis offered in your tree and that it is inconclusive. 

On Dean’s side the cM levels are quite low and hence more room for doubt but perhaps a degree of endogamy has taken place over the years that introduces variances into the algorithms that DNA Painter has used in their WATO tool.

Again it gives results that are inconclusive.

DNA transfer is as you are probably aware not strictly linear generation by generation, indeed for me I have one match with 364cM and their first cousin is my 112 cM match and a 1/2 first cousin of my 364cM match is 92cM to me so decidedly not linear and points me that endogamy might have taken place somewhere that I have yet to find.

[Bates51]

Remember DNA is completely random, and can greatly vary. However, there is a minimum and a maximum amounts of centimorgans  you can share in a relationship. It may help if you download one of the charts on line, and that will help you see if a certain relationship is feasible or not. If a group of shared matches go back to a common ancestor, then you have to start tracing his/her children, then their children etc. Draw up their trees, and it’s finding a man who was in the right locality.