"Back to normal by Christmas"

[sugarfizzle]

Numbers of new cases seem to be creeping up again - unless that is another change in the way things are counted in the last four days.

Apparently we have been counting deaths incorrectly in England!   According to one report anyone who has ever tested positive and later dies, has Covid put on their certificate so, “It turns out you could have been tested positive in February, recovered, then get hit by a bus in July and you’d be recorded as a covid death.” The other 3 countries of the UK only put it if a death occurs within 28 days, which makes far more sense.

The way of counting deaths has always been via excess deaths over the five year average.

Not sure that that is correct, IgorStrav. British government up until now have been releasing daily death figures.

I don't think that the excess death figures over 5 year period are available on a daily basis, though I may be wrong.

Regards Margaret

Just checked: 5 year excess deaths are released each week by ONS.

[LizzieL]

Could be much earlier, PHE has reported 827 new cases today (18th), quite an increase on the last few days.

14th July 398
15th July 538
16th July 641
17th July 687

[jillruss]

Wasn't WW1 supposed to be over by Christmas?

Its propaganda, folks. Ignore it - do your own thing and stop getting hung up on the 'rules'. In those famous words of The Prisoner: 'I am not a number. I am a free man'.

[Maiden Stone]

Reply # groom + replies 4 & 6 Lizzie.
I'm a cautious person and so tend to pay heed to the medical and scientific officers and to Nicola Sturgeon, who is a cautious politician. My key watch-words throughout have been caution and common-sense.
At least this latest broadcast by the PM was better than the muddled one he did in May which succeeded only in confusing people.
There has been an increase in cases in Scotland this week.
Don't forget Northern Ireland in the mix of statistics.
I practise social & physical distancing during seasonal flu outbreaks so I'm not intending to live it up at Christmas.
I'm having problems accessing RC for past 2 days. I couldn't reply on another thread today and I can't quote posts on this one.

[HughC]

I have seen two predictions -- one by a clairvoyant and the other by a virologist -- that the pandemic will appear to have fizzled out in September or October but will flare up again at Christmas; the new wave in early 2021 will be worse than what we've experienced so far.

If we assume that worldwide deaths are increasing at a linear rate, and will continue at about the same rate on average, I calculate that there'll have been a million deaths by mid-October and 2 million in May next year.  But if the rate of increase is exponential, then the human race will have been wiped out in just over three years.  Good news for the remaining species!

Yes, I know: extrapolation is a risky business.

[louisa maud]

I am not even going to think about getting back to normal, I am doing my own thing day by day, keeping safe and not venturing to far a way, but I am hoping to spread my wings to visit Devon to see my brother in the not to distant future, I have left it long enough, 3 years and as the years pass I don't want it to be to late, so Devon, stay safe for me to visit please and I do the same during my visit  to you!!!

LM

[zoe_Wiccalo]

Wasn't WW1 supposed to be over by Christmas?

Its propaganda, folks. Ignore it - do your own thing and stop getting hung up on the 'rules'. In those famous words of The Prisoner: 'I am not a number. I am a free man'.

I stand with you on this 110%.

[barryd]

Please define Normal.

If we want to say that Normal is as it was January 1st 2020 then I doubt that will happen.

Too many people have lost their jobs.
Too many people have lost family and friends.
Too many people cannot afford a roof over their heads.

I will be the first to complain when taxes go up at the earliest possible time. Complaining will not do too much but it might make me feel better.

[Finley 1]

'conforming to a standard; usual, typical, or expected.'

Doubt I will start this NOW  never have in 73 yrs

xin