How do you know that Redroger? I thought this was one of the unknowns about Covid19?
It is indeed an unknown. But if the first wave spread around the World due to people doing the things they normally do, then it is a valid hypothesis that people returning to doing the things they normally do may enable a second wave to spread around the World.
The difference however is that in the first wave very little was known about Covid-19. In fact several reports suggest Covid-19 was silently spreading long before the first Wuhan cases were reported and people simply weren't aware (me being one of them) that it could so easily spread rapidly through symptomless infection.
People now are generally being much more cautious that they were in November/December/January. As a result, the "it will happen again" hypothesis might turn out to be wrong.
Lots of people were predicting that the protests in London and elsewhere were going to cause a second wave - two weeks or so later I'm not aware of any news about localised or general increases in the infection rate. Perhaps it is still too early, or perhaps the concerns were misplaced.
The key thing to take from Redroger's post is that all he offers is criticism. There is no alternative strategy proposed.
It would be interesting to know if he has one, and whether any alternative strategy he has in mind has been adopted by any largish country (population >10M) and if so, what plans that country has to eventually allow people to return to a normal life.
