Contact tracing, a rant

[Dundee]

The only way out of lockdown is to come out and see what happens

You only have to get your popcorn and watch America for that.  They are quite happy to sacrifice thousands of lives so that they can get a haircut and play golf.  I feel so grateful every day that I live in a country where we all actually like each other and every life is valuable.

One other point: 26,000 deaths is tragic in any circumstances but according to the ONS there were an estimated 23,200 'excess winter deaths' in 2018/19 and that was 'significantly lower' than the two previous years. You have to question whether we've unnecessarily backed ourselves into a corner and whether lockdown was ever the answer.

Respiratory diseases remained the leading cause of EWM in 2018 to 2019, with 48.2% (8,900 excess winter deaths (EWD)) and 39.6% (600 EWD) more respiratory deaths in the winter months compared with the non-winter months in England and Wales respectively. This accounted for 40.6% of all EWD in England and 42.9% of all EWD in Wales.

Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease accounted for 18.7% and 21.4% of all EWD in England and Wales respectively in the winter of 2018 to 2019, with 22.1% (4,100 EWD) and 30.0% (300 EWD) more deaths occurring in the winter months than the non-winter months.

Circulatory diseases accounted for 22.4% and 14.3% of all EWD in England and Wales respectively, with 12.8% (4,900 EWD) and 7.2% (200 EWD) more deaths occurring in the winter months than the non-winter months.

Respiratory diseases are ALL respiratory diseases, not just those caused by influenza.

http://www.rootschat.com/links/01pez/

Public Health England told ITV News: "The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season.

"The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually.

"This ranged from 1,692 deaths last season, 2018/19, to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15."

The statistics for the 'flu season are from October to May.  More than 28,000 people with COVID-19 have now died in the UK in just a few months and that is with all the mitigation measures now in place.

Debra 

[Guy Etchells]

I suspect that the whole exercise will be a waste of time and prove yet again that our leaders are clueless.

The only way out of lockdown is to come out and see what happens or wait for either a vaccine or an effective medicine.

It has worked well for those Asian countries which developed a similar app after Sars.

We would never have gone into lockdown in the first place if the NHS had been maintained at a level to function adequately and if successive governments had taken any notice of warnings that social care was being neglected to the point of near- extinction. Even after the virus is (if it ever is) brought under control, I doubt that anything will change.

Sorry but that is simply nonsense, we were actually very well prepared compared with many other countries. Yes it is true we were not prepared for Covid-19 but it did not exist 6 months ago.

I said at the start of all this that we should expect the NHS to protect us, not for us to have to protect the NHS because its been so badly funded and is top heavy with overpaid bureaucrats.

Protesting the NHS means protecting ourselves by allowing the NHS to cope with demand rather than the hospitals treating patients on the floor like hospitals over the world

One other point: 26,000 deaths is tragic in any circumstances but according to the ONS there were an estimated 23,200 'excess winter deaths' in 2018/19 and that was 'significantly lower' than the two previous years. You have to question whether we've unnecessarily backed ourselves into a corner and whether lockdown was ever the answer.

Yes if you take certain areas out of the picture lockdown has been very successful, there are a few areas where the people did not follow the rules but in the main it has been a success.
Cheers
Guy

[BushInn1746]

The only way out of lockdown is to come out and see what happens or wait for either a vaccine or an effective medicine.

One other point: 26,000 deaths is tragic in any circumstances but according to the ONS there were an estimated 23,200 'excess winter deaths' in 2018/19 and that was 'significantly lower' than the two previous years. You have to question whether we've unnecessarily backed ourselves into a corner and whether lockdown was ever the answer.

Hi

MERS and SARS
Regarding MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) there is still NO vaccine.

MERS (2012) is a Coronavirus relative of the current Covid-19 family.

Lockdown - UK
The Coronavirus models from SAGE before UK Lockdown

Estimated deaths with UK Lockdown 20,000 Deaths [we have passed that now and not reached 1 August 2020 yet].

No UK Lockdown 510,000 [yes over half a million] UK deaths by August 2020.

Forget some of the media reporting, these are nasty easily transferrable viruses!

Every possible action (or inaction) or alternative choice we had over Coronavirus at the start, will result in a negative outcome for somebody.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't, springs to mind.

Mark

[Nanna52]

I have downloaded the app here in Australia.  For a similar reason to Guy, I would rather know than not.  I went shopping yesterday so will let you know if someone comes knocking on my door to demand why I was out.    All these problems were discussed at length in the Australian media before its release.  There have been scams appearing, but they are just that, scams and could go to anyone’s phone. 
Victoria has committed to testing 100,000 people in two weeks (out of 5 million plus) before deciding which restrictions to lift.

[groom]

Looking at Mike’s diagram I see it asks you to report if you are diagnosed with CV. The problem here as I see it, is that you are only diagnosed if you are admitted to hospital or if you manage to get tested. There could be a lot of people who get it mildly but aren’t officially diagnosed. However if they pass it on, the next person could be badly affected. So are they going to accept self diagnosis, in which case there could be a lot of false reports judging by how many of those actually tested at the moment are coming back negative.

[pharmaT]

To be much use it will also require swab tests to be turned around quicker.  A family member was waiting 5 or 6 days

Completely agree, my daughter's took 6 days and I only got the results because I chased them.

[Pheno]

I can't really see this working as there are going to be a goodly number of people who will not use the app, for whatever reason.  Could it be that a majority of those people test positive but others will never know as the app has not been used by them.

I read somewhere that this has been tried in Singapore and only 17% participated.

Pheno

[Ruskie]

As I understand it, with the Australian app, after a positive diagnosis, it is the health department which will request permission from the person who has tested positive, to contact anyone (who has  the app), to inform them that they have been in close contact with someone who has been diagnosed with the virus, so they can watch for symptoms, get tested and/or self isolate.

It is not up to people to admit that they have tested positive - it comes through the official health channels.

Currently, anyone who tests positive is interviewed to try to determine where they have been and who they may have been in contact with. The app makes this process easier.

The problem is those who are asymptomatic, anyone with false positives, false negatives and potentially people refusing to allow the heath dept to contact other people they have been in contact with. Still, if it is something that may help so that has to be a good thing.

I don’t know if it is true or not, but apparently the Chinese had a similar app which is apparently how they have been able to get back to apparent normality so quickly. I don’t know if that is or was compulsory for all citizens.

[candleflame]

I'm not worried about the spying aspect, but I am concerned about those who would like to have this app , but simply cannot afford a posh phone or contract or who live in our rural areas where the signal is rubbish. There are black spots near us when our daughter phones and we can guess she's at one of several such black spots.
I have a smartphone but my husband doesn't as he couldn't manage one - his own admission. So whilst I can be tracked, he can't.
Also I'm sure that having Bluetooth on will drain the phone battery so I'll need to watch that aspect.