state of emergency

[BumbleB]

Just had an e-mail from my daughter.  Her ex-husband went to France for the weekend.  She has been told that the children are not to visit him for the time being - he has flu-like symptoms and had them BEFORE he even went to France.     He is supposedly an educated man. 

[mazi]

It’s about time our leaders had a sense of proportion, every day in the uk 1000 or so people die, an extra two or three is not going to make a lot of difference,  and, before you say I am callous, at 79 I am a very high risk.

I'm reluctant to spread fear, but on the other hand it isn't helping anyone if the idea goes round that this disease is nothing to worry about.

Based on widely reported figures the mortality rate from COVID-19 is about 1%.

None of us has any immunity to it, but if we are lucky then only around 70% or so will get it.

70% of the UK population is approximately 46.5 million people. If the population and the government did nothing and 1% of those people died then we are talking about the deaths of 465,000 people.

Given the rate of spread we've seen elsewhere (where governments have been working hard to contain it), the period of infection would be complete in something like two months or less.

465,000 people dying over a period of two months equates to somewhere around 7,600 deaths per day.

It isn't just an extra two or three per day they are talking about.

Hopefully it will turn out the mortality rate is much lower than 1% for the general population, what they don't yet know is how many people have been infected without showing any symptoms.

But even reducing the mortality rate from 1% down to 0.1% could still equate to deaths counted in hundreds per day rather than single digit numbers. That kind of rate is what is being seen in countries like Italy, and possibly Iran.

I'm just grateful we have scientists and health workers who are doing the very best they can to slow down the rate of infection and give as many people as possible the chance of living.

Please, listen to the official advice, err on the side of caution, don't get unduly alarmed, stay safe.

So 99% of the population may get a bit of  a cold, for the other 1% it may be fatal, but many, many of those are terminally ill anyway, me possibly included.

The potential 450,000 deaths are possible, but most of them are not extra deaths, maybe just hastened a bit, rather than lingering on, for me personally that is a better option.

I think we must agree it differ on this, I want the best outcome for my grandchildren, not me.

Mike

[Nick_Ips]

I didn't watch him but I am not prepared to be cowed by despotism. Any such attempt to impose house arrest on all people in such a a large group would be fraught with difficulties, would cause immense problems and would be deeply injurious to that group. It would be complete madness of the Government to try to impose this.

Personally I think it would be complete madness for people in the vulnerable groups not to self-isolate willingly and voluntarily.

Everybody should be thinking very carefully about what impact their actions could have on other people.

[Mart 'n' Al]

The feeling I get, out and about during the last few days is half the people in the UK are in a state of panic and half couldn't care less. That sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Martin

[Nick_Ips]

The feeling I get, out and about during the last few days is half the people in the UK are in a state of panic and half couldn't care less. That sounds like a recipe for disaster.

I think that is a spot-on assessment of the situation Martin.

We need a lot more people to move into a middle position asap.

[jc26red]

My husband is also in the vulnerable group. He has a pre-op MRI booked for Wednesday and his op to remove 3 liver tumours shortly after. I think the op will be pushed back as it entails 2-8 days in ICU and staying in hospital for around 15 days, all going well. We are hoping the MRI will show no growth since the last one 4 weeks ago, in which case his op will probably be postponed and he will have to have injections to keep everything stable.

Greensleeves, I totally understand your anxiety, I hope your daughter is able have her surgery as planned and you all get through this worrying time. Groom is a lovely friend to have ☺️

[jc26red]

China is relaxing their isolation rules a little today, their total isolation lasted 50 days. South Korea has also turned the corner on numbers on new cases but both are still a long way from saying the worse is over as there are many still in a critical condition.

Hopefully this will mean our own elderly isolation won’t be as long as 4 months.

[tup1]

Hi,
Just a query if myself and husband are in isolation due to age what happens to our son in his 50s who goes out to work and lives with us?

[Girl Guide]

If your house is big enough you may be able to avoid close contact by being in separate rooms.  Just agree to use the kitchen and bathroom at different times.

Would you be able to do that tup1?