Author Topic: How confident should I be?  (Read 1706 times)

Offline clogdancer

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Re: How confident should I be?
« Reply #9 on: Thursday 13 June 19 07:42 BST (UK) »
Thanks all, for your input.
I've tried looking for DNA matches further back, but cant find anything that stands out.
Matching family trees tend to run out at the 4th-5th cousin stage anyway.
If there is a link further back that is more valid, it could of course be a different surname entirely.
I reckon I could only identify that by finding DNA matches that share surnames, which is next to impossible by just viewing records.
I've installed AncestryDNA Helper to get matches downloaded so I can sort and match them on my computer.
But can anyone tell me, what is the significance of the number of segments of shared DNA?

Offline sugarfizzle

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Re: How confident should I be?
« Reply #10 on: Thursday 13 June 19 08:41 BST (UK) »
Clogdancer, DNA helper may not work for much longer, unless DNA helper come up with a solution. I haven't used it myself, so don't know what it entails, but the beta version currently being used for Ancestry matches clearly states that third party apps won't work with it when it is introduced fully, so get whatever you can quickly.

If you have only recently got your results back you may not realise what an improvement the new beta version is in many ways.

The segments inherited are usually a reflection of the closeness of the match, especially with higher numbers.

For example, I share 723 cMs over 32 segments with a known first cousin. Our grandparents might have passed down c 360 cMs each from 16 different segments (or one may have passed down more than the other one).

A known 2nd cousin shares 284 cMs over 11 segments, one known 3rd cousin shares 153/7. Another 3rd cousin shares only 17 cMs across a single segment.

So the amount inherited decreases with each generation.

But as DNA inheritance is random, the further down you go you may inherit only one segment from an ancestor, or two smaller ones, both of 20 cMs in total. Which, if either, is closer to you?

Up for debate, general consensus is that the 20/1 is closer than 10/2, but there will always be exceptions.

DNA inheritance is a random affair, after your parents. You inherit 50% from each parent and identical twins will also share 3400 cMs.
After that lots of variables come into play.
Refer to the ISOGG statistic and DNA painter links given in an earlier post. Work with your known matches. Get to know what is likely and what isn't.

In a month, or a year, or in 2 years time, you may find something to positively confirm what you think.

At one stage I thought that perhaps my great grandfather was not my great grandfather. Plenty of matches from his wife's family, none whatsoever from his. This was my maiden name, traced with confidence back to 17C Surrey.

Bit by bit the matches came in with ancestors from his line. Then my cousin got tested and I found different matches on that line as well.

It takes up a lot of my time, isn't easy, and there are no quick answers.

I hope some of the other regulars chip in as well, you've only got my feelings on the matter so far!

Regards Margaret
STEER, mainly Surrey, Kent; PINNOCKS/HAINES, Gosport, Hants; BARKER, mainly Broadwater, Sussex; Gosport, Hampshire; LAVERSUCH, Micheldever, Hampshire; WESTALL, London, Reading, Berks; HYDE, Croydon, Surrey; BRIGDEN, Hadlow, Kent and London; TUTHILL/STEPHENS, London
WILKINSON, Leeds, Yorkshire and Liverpool; WILLIAMSON, Liverpool; BEARE, Yeovil, Somerset; ALLEN, Kent and London; GORST, Liverpool; HOYLE, mainly Leeds, Yorkshire

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Offline clogdancer

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Re: How confident should I be?
« Reply #11 on: Thursday 13 June 19 11:26 BST (UK) »
Thanks sugarfizzle for the explanation.
AncestryDNA Helper is still downloading data after 2 hours. Hope its worth it!
I'm planning to find what names are occurring across several different trees, and these could be my ancestors.