"Who Do You Think You Are" Series 13, Episode #1: Danny Dyer

[andrewalston]

What I'm saying is that there is a lower probability that someone in 1500 married a non-descendant of Edward III than 20000 / 4million

But it is not THAT much lower. Say, for argument's sake, as many as half those descendants classed themselves as nobility and never married outside their "class", and demanded that all their descendants did likewise. That leaves 10,000 to mix with the rest of society (of whom many had already done so).

So, it's now only a 35 to 1 chance that you are NOT descended from Edward III.

Statistics throws up some non-intuitive truths. For example, how many people do there have to be in a room for it to be more likely than not that two of them share the same birthday? The answer is just 23. If there are 70 people, the chances of a match of birthday are 99.9%. Statistics are not just a mathematical concept - bookmakers make a good living out of them.

[StevieSteve]

Say, for argument's sake, as many as half those descendants classed themselves as nobility and never married outside their "class", and demanded that all their descendants did likewise.

Or suppose I pluck a different equally-random figure from thin air and say that half of the "non noble" subset only marry among themselves. That'll give a 50:50-ish chance of being a descendent. High probability, yes, but a difference similar to that of predicting the result of a coin toss at the start of a cricket match and that of there being a coin toss in the first place.

Stats work if the assumptions behind the calculations are reasonably valid. If they're not, they don't

[sallyyorks]

Exactly. Allegedly my Titshall line harks back to a Lord of the manor of Herringfleet in Suffolk. Someone with the surname was Lord of the manor. Titshall is a rare surname as well. My Titshall's were millers in the 1700s, one was a churchwarden. So if they do descend from a lord then they would have slipped down the scale. I have ancestors who were landowners whose children ended up as yeomen or tenant farmers and whose grandchildren ended up as labourers.

Most Brits will descend from royalty whether we can prove it or not. And Danny Dyer is no less the working class person he is just because a very distant ancestor 22 generations back was King Edward III.

The problem for most of us is that the records run out. http://parishregister.net/history.htm
Your everyday commoner did not own any property, so would not leave a will or deeds for example. Parish register records run out at about 1550? if not sooner for most of our ancestors lines. That there might be a rich landowner nearby with the same name does not mean that they are related to our everyday yeoman, ag lab or weaver.

[stonechat]

The problem for most of us is that the records run out. http://parishregister.net/history.htm
Your everyday commoner did not own any property, so would not leave a will or deeds for example. Parish register records run out at about 1550? if not sooner for most of our ancestors lines. That there might be a rich landowner nearby with the same name does not mean that they are related to our everyday yeoman, ag lab or weaver.

Well I descended from Edward I, not that I attach any importance to it. It's just that sometimes you manage to link into an existing pedigree.

TBH there is less fun in the parts of the tree that you have not found yourself

[clairec666]

TBH there is less fun in the parts of the tree that you have not found yourself

Never a truer word said

[tillypeg]

Very true - if only those name-collectors on Ancestry trees would grasp that!

[Maiden Stone]

I didn't see the programme but I remember an episode from a previous series featuring a similar scenario with Matthew Pinsent, an Olympic rower. From what I remember of that, there was a scroll showing Royal descent back to God.
If Danny Dyer had followed the line backwards from Edward to William Conqueror and beyond, he would have found one of his ancestors was a tanner, since W. Conk's Ma was a tanner's daughter.

[larkspur]

This so-called "Royalty" was descended from the bastard of a brigand & a tanner's daughter!

Skoosh.

Mentioned by Skoosh