Author Topic: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations  (Read 18551 times)

Offline Guy Etchells

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #72 on: Tuesday 24 September 13 16:58 BST (UK) »
Y-DNA testing for surname projects is a comparison process. If you want to find out if a line descending from John Etchells born in 1815 in London is related to a line that traces back to William Etchells born in 1745 in Yorkshire you don't have to test the entire population of the world. You just have to test one person from each line and see if the results match. If they match you know the two lines share a common ancestor, and that the two lines are related even if you can't find the paper trail connection. You don't have to test everyone else from the same two lines with the same surname as you can reasonably infer that their results would match too.

That is where the theory breaks down and is one of the points you are missing.
In a surname like Etchells the ancestor could carry a surname Smith, Jones, Williams or any other surname under the sun.
The surname stems from a location it does not mean his ancestors became know as Etchells.
Other descendants of the same common ancestor could and in many cases would carry a different surname. This is almost a certainty if they remained in the location the subject moved from.

It also means that many of the people who came from a single common location and carrying the name Etchells may not have any genetic relationship.

It's therefore not necessary to test anything like 100% or even 50% of people with a surname to find out how many different lineages there are and which ones are related.

Totally wrong if one wishes to accurately (i.e. 100% accurate) find out how many different lineages are possible for a given surname every person carrying that surname must be tested otherwise only an estimate can be given. Extrapolating figures gives estimations not accuracy.

The entire DNA field is based on the theory that DNA sequences are unique identifiers, however as only a minuscule percentage of the world population has had their DNA tested that it only a theory. It may be accurate or it may prove to be wildly optimistic, nobody at this moment in time can say.

 
A few Y-DNA test results can actually go a very long way. If two results don't match it becomes more complicated. All surnames, even those that are very rare and have a single origin, have multiple genetic lineages on the Y-line. There are only just over 1500 people with the surname Etchells in the 1881 census so you would not expect there to be too many different lineages. There will also be other variant spellings that could be related. The biggest problem with Y-DNA testing is that so many lineages become extinct and lines that you would like to test have no living descendants.

Again you miss the point. In a name which stems from a location as in a name that stems from an occupation the chance of different lineages is substantially higher than that where the surname is a patronymic name.
Indeed where a surname stems from multiple locations there is a small chance that there could be as many different lineages as there are people in a particular generation.
It also follows that not everyone from a particular location will adopt or be given that location's name as their surname. Therefore different members of the same family may leave the family location at different times and end up with completely different surnames, some could be given occupational names and end up as Smiths, others could end up with a patronymic name such as Williamson etc. etc.

That is why we study surnames by combining DNA testing with documentary records. It's particularly important to look at the early distribution of the surname in medieval records (lay subsidy rolls, hearth tax returns, protestation returns, etc).

We are also not looking for unique DNA signatures. It's not like forensic DNA testing where each signature is unique to an individual. A Y-DNA test does not identify an individual as multiple people will share the same DNA signature, and often you will have matches not just with your own surname but with other surnames as well. If someone's result is at odds with the paper trail then DNA testing can often help to find clues to the biological surname of the father.

I can agree with much of these last two paragraphs but then you spoil it by mentioning a biological surname.
What on earth is a biological surname?
Do you mean the surname of a biological father, or are you referring to some hypothetical  name given to those carrying a particular DNA sequence?

Perhaps you may gather I do not have a problem the the theory of DNA sequencing but I do have a big problem with the claims some make "based" on DNA sequencing.
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Guy
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Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #73 on: Tuesday 24 September 13 17:38 BST (UK) »
That is where the theory breaks down and is one of the points you are missing.
In a surname like Etchells the ancestor could carry a surname Smith, Jones, Williams or any other surname under the sun.
The surname stems from a location it does not mean his ancestors became know as Etchells.
Other descendants of the same common ancestor could and in many cases would carry a different surname. This is almost a certainty if they remained in the location the subject moved from.

It also means that many of the people who came from a single common location and carrying the name Etchells may not have any genetic relationship.

That is precisely the point I was making and the main reason why we do DNA testing because we want to investigate these relationships, and see how many different genetic lineages there are for a surname and to see which surnames from a particular region are related.

Totally wrong if one wishes to accurately (i.e. 100% accurate) find out how many different lineages are possible for a given surname every person carrying that surname must be tested otherwise only an estimate can be given. Extrapolating figures gives estimations not accuracy.

We use DNA testing as a complement to documentary research. In any type of research there are always going to be limitations on time, money and the availability of records. If someone wishes to study a surname and test every single living descendant then they are quite free to do so if they have the financial resources available. It's always better to have the additional evidence from the DNA rather than to extrapolate from the documentary records alone which are never 100% accurate. The DNA test results also help to fill in gaps in the paper records by finding matches between different lines where there is no documentary link.

The entire DNA field is based on the theory that DNA sequences are unique identifiers, however as only a minuscule percentage of the world population has had their DNA tested that it only a theory. It may be accurate or it may prove to be wildly optimistic, nobody at this moment in time can say.

You've got this back to front. The DNA field is based on the fact that we all share many markers in common. The more markers we share in common the closer we are related. These markers are not unique identifiers. Sometimes several hundred people can have matches even when you test 67 Y-STR markers. You don't need to test the whole world's population to answer specific research questions. You only need to test selected people from the lines in question as previously explained. Testing the whole population of India or China is not going to help anyone researching a surname line from Yorkshire or Devon.

Again you miss the point. In a name which stems from a location as in a name that stems from an occupation the chance of different lineages is substantially higher than that where the surname is a patronymic name.
Indeed where a surname stems from multiple locations there is a small chance that there could be as many different lineages as there are people in a particular generation.
It also follows that not everyone from a particular location will adopt or be given that location's name as their surname. Therefore different members of the same family may leave the family location at different times and end up with completely different surnames, some could be given occupational names and end up as Smiths, others could end up with a patronymic name such as Williamson etc. etc.

Again, as I said before that is precisely why we do these studies to try and work which lines are related and which ones aren't.

What on earth is a biological surname?
Do you mean the surname of a biological father, or are you referring to some hypothetical  name given to those carrying a particular DNA sequence?
I do mean the surname of the biological father. It does sometimes happen in a DNA project that the DNA results do not match the documented trees. Sometimes there might be an error in the research, but on other occasions there's been something like a concealed illegitimacy or adoption. If the father's name is not known then matches with other surnames can sometimes provide clues as to the identity of the actual father.
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Offline acorngen

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #74 on: Tuesday 24 September 13 17:42 BST (UK) »
Devon,

I am not saying that the Neamderthal link is robust.  I have seen the data that has proved the link to modern homo sapiens and backs up my own arguments made as an archaeology student and then slapped down by the paleontologists of the day. 

Historic genealogy is that which we all do as a hobby ie family history.  Genetic genealogy is using the human genome and the selected markers within that to discern if there are any genetic connections.  Whilst the A-DNA or even Y-DNA will say yeah you two in all probability are related genetically they do not say with certainty you are related.  Has more markers are examined then this may become much clearer however has was pointed out at the last talk I went to the cost of getting to this point is astronomical and the chances of it coming down to an affordable figure any time soon is highly unlikely.  In fact we were told to expect the cost of testing to go through the roof again in the very near future due to new markers being added to the test. 

I have no problem with genetic DNA however I do believe that marketting this has a way to prove a family connection is in reality nothing more than a scam

Guy,

Chris Pommery did say there is a hope that the data base they are producing along with new ways of comparing results based around algorithms and computers to hopefully bring together different surnames that have the same genetical makeup

Rob
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Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #75 on: Tuesday 24 September 13 17:49 BST (UK) »
I was referring to acorngen's theory about Indigenous Australians and New Zealanders being the closest modern people to Neanderthals. I was just attempting to point out that New Zealanders (ie the Maori) are comparatively recent arrivals having migrated from other Pacific islands only several hundred years ago. So many differences must have developed in the interim thousands of years between Pacific Islanders and Indigenous Australians.

I think you're right that the Maoris took a different path. The migratory routes are still theories rather than proven facts. All non-Africans have a certain small percentage of Neanderthal DNA. It's the Melanesians and Polynesians who share a small percentage of Denisovan DNA. Denisovan DNA is supposedly not found outside these populations.
Researching: Ayshford, Berryman, Bodger, Boundy, Cruse, Cruwys, Dillon, Faithfull, Kennett, Keynes, Ratty, Tidbury, Trask, Westcott, Wiggins, Woolfenden.


Offline acorngen

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #76 on: Tuesday 24 September 13 17:53 BST (UK) »
When I made my first statement about Neanderthal genes being in Homo Sapiens it was based on the fact that many people today have the Neanderthal look.  The aboriginies more so than any other race that I have seen.  Compare a picture of how we believe Neanderthal looked and compare that with Aboriginies and you will see my point.

When the tests were done to see where Neanderthal migrated to do you know if they tested indigenous populous or just what I call the imported populous

Rob
WYATT, COX, STRATTON, all from south Derbyshire and the STS, LEI border Burns Fellows Gough Wilks from STS in particular Black Country and now heading into SOP

Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #77 on: Tuesday 24 September 13 18:03 BST (UK) »
I am not saying that the Neamderthal link is robust.  I have seen the data that has proved the link to modern homo sapiens and backs up my own arguments made as an archaeology student and then slapped down by the paleontologists of the day.

I was the one who said the link with Neanderthals is robust. What are you saying is wrong with the Neanderthal research?


Historic genealogy is that which we all do as a hobby ie family history.  Genetic genealogy is using the human genome and the selected markers within that to discern if there are any genetic connections.  Whilst the A-DNA or even Y-DNA will say yeah you two in all probability are related genetically they do not say with certainty you are related.  Has more markers are examined then this may become much clearer however has was pointed out at the last talk I went to the cost of getting to this point is astronomical and the chances of it coming down to an affordable figure any time soon is highly unlikely.  In fact we were told to expect the cost of testing to go through the roof again in the very near future due to new markers being added to the test. 

I have no problem with genetic DNA however I do believe that marketting this has a way to prove a family connection is in reality nothing more than a scam.

I've not heard the term historic genealogy used before. Family history is the usual terminology. Genetic genealogy is the application of DNA testing to family history. Genetic genealogy uses DNA testing in combination with documentary records. DNA testing is not very effective when used on its own.

DNA tests are now very cheap starting at about $49  (£33) for a Y-DNA or mtDNA test. The autosomal DNA tests now cost just $99 (£62). The cost of testing is coming down all the time and the resolution of the tests is increasing. You can now have your whole genome sequenced for just a few thousand dollars. It would have cost you billions of dollars ten years ago. The tests do tell you that two people are related on a particular line with 100% certainty. The uncertainty is over the timeframe in which they are related. The more markers tested the better you can estimate the time to the most recent common ancestor. It is not a scam. People are paying for the tests because they work, and because they are able to find family connections which they wouldn't necessarily find with the paper records alone. It works best if you have a particular research hypothesis to test.
Researching: Ayshford, Berryman, Bodger, Boundy, Cruse, Cruwys, Dillon, Faithfull, Kennett, Keynes, Ratty, Tidbury, Trask, Westcott, Wiggins, Woolfenden.

Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #78 on: Tuesday 24 September 13 18:09 BST (UK) »
When I made my first statement about Neanderthal genes being in Homo Sapiens it was based on the fact that many people today have the Neanderthal look.  The aboriginies more so than any other race that I have seen.  Compare a picture of how we believe Neanderthal looked and compare that with Aboriginies and you will see my point.

When the tests were done to see where Neanderthal migrated to do you know if they tested indigenous populous or just what I call the imported populous

You cannot make inferences about ancestry based on appearances. The whole Neanderthal genome has been sequenced. DNA was extracted from bones found in a cave in Croatia. Thousands and thousands of indigenous people have now been tested from around the world. You can only make limited inferences about the migratory patterns of Neanderthals because only a limited range of artefacts and bones have survived.
Researching: Ayshford, Berryman, Bodger, Boundy, Cruse, Cruwys, Dillon, Faithfull, Kennett, Keynes, Ratty, Tidbury, Trask, Westcott, Wiggins, Woolfenden.

Offline acorngen

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #79 on: Tuesday 24 September 13 18:42 BST (UK) »
I disagree with you over making inferences based on bones and structure of those bones.  Do you know what the distiguishing features of Neanderthal man is?  Apart from brain size etc that is?  It is the prominent brow ridges and the square jaw line.  Of course this is not a fact based science and I for one would not say it is the only way to distinguish this race from another.  However my own observations on the whole subject have been proven correct.

If you read my posts properly you will see that I know the whole genome has been matched.  It is how I am able to say with certainty that my observations and assumptions have proven correct.

Can you point me to any scientific based websites and not news reports that show how many people from each continent were tested, their ethnography and the results please

Rob
WYATT, COX, STRATTON, all from south Derbyshire and the STS, LEI border Burns Fellows Gough Wilks from STS in particular Black Country and now heading into SOP

Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #80 on: Wednesday 25 September 13 12:44 BST (UK) »
Can you point me to any scientific based websites and not news reports that show how many people from each continent were tested, their ethnography and the results please

Rob

This is a massive subject and if you need the answers this is something you would have to research yourself. You can search on PubMed or Google Scholar for all the Neanderthal and Denisovan papers.

The Max Planck Institute is the lab that's done all the Neanderthal and Denisovan research:

http://www.eva.mpg.de/neandertal/index.html

Michael Hammer's lab at the University of Arizona has also done a lot of work on Neanderthals and Denisovans:

http://hammerlab.biosci.arizona.edu/michael_hammer.html

There are a variety of different databases for the different DNA tests. The massive autosomal STR databases are mostly for forensic use and now have literally millions of test results.

The Genographic Project is well on the way to collecting 100,000 indigenous samples from around the world but they've mostly done Y-DNA and mtDNA analysis on these samples at present though the autosomal SNP testing is probably now well under way:

https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/

The SMGF database has getting on for 100,000 indigenous samples, though again these were Y-DNA and mtDNA samples. AncestryDNA acquired the database and are now doing autosomal SNP testing on the database. There is a map somewhere on the SMGF website showing the distribution of samples:

http://www.smgf.org/

For autosomal SNP testing there is the Human Genome Diversity Project:

There is also the 1000 Genomes Project:

http://www.1000genomes.org/

There also all the large consumer databases. You'll find a list here:

http://www.isogg.org/wiki/DNA_databases

There are all sorts of research samples in different locations which it's difficult to quantify.  You'd really have to read the scientific papers to see which datasets were used for comparison.
Researching: Ayshford, Berryman, Bodger, Boundy, Cruse, Cruwys, Dillon, Faithfull, Kennett, Keynes, Ratty, Tidbury, Trask, Westcott, Wiggins, Woolfenden.