Author Topic: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations  (Read 18615 times)

Offline acorngen

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #81 on: Wednesday 25 September 13 21:05 BST (UK) »
Now that is where I have a problem because I was told that the Neanderthal genome testiing to see if there were any links to modern Homo Sapien were  brand new samples and a set number from each continent but the person who gave the talk couldnt say what ethnography was built into but Ill do some digging thx

Rob
WYATT, COX, STRATTON, all from south Derbyshire and the STS, LEI border Burns Fellows Gough Wilks from STS in particular Black Country and now heading into SOP

Offline JaneyCanuck

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #82 on: Friday 04 October 13 23:57 BST (UK) »
You have exemplified why a DNA test for a surname such as Etchells is as relevant as a bucketshop heritage peddled by fraudsters.

When a surname group which is formed from a habitation name such as Etchells there are many thousands if not millions of primary sources to that name.
In other words there is not just one genetic lineage but thousands of genetic lineages.
It follows that to get any worthwhile data the DNA database will have to be large to enable to determine if one lineage is associated with other lineages for the same surname.
The most likely scenario is that large numbers of different unrelated lineages will develop from the one location and that those unrelated lineages will probably be contained in other surname groupings.

I've seldom seen someone miss a point so spectacularly.

There is more than one reason why surname projects with organizations like FTDNA are dominated by people in the US. The one we seem to be neglecting is that people in the US are much more often looking for their recent ancestral origins than people in the UK or even Canada are. (Canada was, overall, settled much later than the US, so we have less difficulty pinpointing our origins in England or elsewhere.)

What these people don't know is precisely this: which Etchells clan, say, they belong to. Their ancestor arrived on a boat, maybe as recently as 1800ish, and there they are stuck. Nobody is looking to prove that all people named Etchells in the world belong to one big extended family, for the love of Pete. They are not looking for linkages between lineages; they are looking for their own lineage.

Even though I was able to find my mother's father's father's origin in England, after much sweat, I found myself still stuck. It turned out that the surname he had passed down to her was completely fake. I am 100% confident that I have identified him as a person registered at birth in Cornwall as Hill. The ages and names of the two individuals (my gr-grfather and his doppelgänger), the various names in their families, the fact that Mr. Hill had a sister whose given names included my gr-grfather's fake surname which the Hill sister also adopted, the complete lack of any overlap between them in time, all made this indisputable. But whether his father was really Mr. Hill is the question. Maybe there was some truth to his tale about his fake surname (that no one ever knew was fake) being his real father's name.

So I seemed to have an either/or question: either he was a genetic Hill, or he was a genetic X, his adopted surname. X is a very uncommon name; not much hope of finding a match, or of being able to rule it out by the lack of a match. But Hill? Several hundred of them in the FTDNA project, mostly in the US with unknown British origins. I should be able to rule Hill in or out.

This raised the possibility of YDNA testing producing two good outcomes: me confirming that my gr-grfather was a Hill, by matching one or more people with that surname, and someone in the US finding the source of their surname, i.e. a source of themself, by matching my Hill YDNA for which I have a paper trail back to Cornwall/Devon.

The Cornish being the great emigrators, it seemed likely that if my man was a Hill, some relation would have ended up in the US, likely having emigrated in connection with mining.

And lo and behold, yes. I got a very close YDNA match (probability 75% at 12 generations, 99% at 24 generations) with someone in the US whose grandfather had emigrated from the same area of Cornwall in the 1840s, in connection with mining ... whose name is not Hill. No, it's the surname of my great-grandfather's paternal grandmother, who was married to Hill. Which doesn't count at all.

But it does do one thing for me: any doubt that might have persisted that my fake-named gr-grfather was the Mr. Hill from Cornwall whom I had identified as his real identity is pretty much dispelled by this match. The coincidence of matching YDNA with someone whose line, for generations, lived 20 miles away from where my Mr. Hill was born would be way too much.

This development doesn't actually help me find the ancestors, but it confirms I am at least on the right track -- the match is from exactly the geographic location where I expected it to be.

Obviously the idea that all the Hills in the British Isles are related, and my maternal grandfather's family's YDNA will prove that, is an utter nonsense and it would never have occurred to me to even think of that.

I'm sure it's nice to have one's ancestral lines all traceable back to Domesday and beyond just by finding the dusty papers or pixels to show them. Some of us aren't that lucky and do not yet know what we are looking for, even. That's what we are after finding out: what to look for, and where.

I didn't expect to create another insane mystery when I had the YDNA tested; I hoped to confirm or deny the work I had done, and probably help somebody make the trans-Atlantic leap to find their own ancestors if they had not yet been able to. So far I've muddied the waters, but with info that is essential to my ongoing search.
HILL, HOARE, BOND, SIBLY, Cornwall (Devon); DENNIS, PAGE, WHITBREAD, Essex; BARNARD, CASTLE, PONTON, Wiltshire; SANKEY, HORNE, YOUNG, Kent; COWDELL, Bermondsey; COOPER, SMITH, FALLOWELL, WILLEY, Notts; CAMPION, CARTER, CRADDOCK, KENNY, Northants; LITTLER, CORNER, Leicestershire; RUSHLAND, Lincolnshire; MORRISON, Ireland; COLLINS, ?; ... MONCK?

Offline JaneyCanuck

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #83 on: Saturday 05 October 13 01:47 BST (UK) »
btw -- hello, Debbie! You will recognize my Mr. X. ;) Sshh! But as you can see, I have got no further ahead .......
HILL, HOARE, BOND, SIBLY, Cornwall (Devon); DENNIS, PAGE, WHITBREAD, Essex; BARNARD, CASTLE, PONTON, Wiltshire; SANKEY, HORNE, YOUNG, Kent; COWDELL, Bermondsey; COOPER, SMITH, FALLOWELL, WILLEY, Notts; CAMPION, CARTER, CRADDOCK, KENNY, Northants; LITTLER, CORNER, Leicestershire; RUSHLAND, Lincolnshire; MORRISON, Ireland; COLLINS, ?; ... MONCK?

Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #84 on: Saturday 05 October 13 12:06 BST (UK) »
btw -- hello, Debbie! You will recognize my Mr. X. ;) Sshh! But as you can see, I have got no further ahead .......

Hello there! Yours is a more difficult situation. It is sometimes a waiting game. If you can identify a suitable candidate then targeted testing can help. There is a very well known case of a Hill who was not a Hill who found his identity through DNA testing and it was the Y-DNA tests that provided the first clues:

http://www.dna-testing-adviser.com/

Dick Hill's book is well worth reading.
Researching: Ayshford, Berryman, Bodger, Boundy, Cruse, Cruwys, Dillon, Faithfull, Kennett, Keynes, Ratty, Tidbury, Trask, Westcott, Wiggins, Woolfenden.


Offline supermoussi

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #85 on: Saturday 05 October 13 12:40 BST (UK) »
Now that is where I have a problem because I was told that the Neanderthal genome testiing to see if there were any links to modern Homo Sapien were  brand new samples and a set number from each continent but the person who gave the talk couldnt say what ethnography was built into but Ill do some digging thx

Rob

Not wishing to be a killjoy but could any further talk of Neanderthals go in a seperate thread please? Neanderthals pre-dated surnames by quite a few years..  ;)

Here's one for you:- http://www.rootschat.com/forum/index.php?topic=663580.0

Offline JaneyCanuck

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #86 on: Saturday 05 October 13 19:57 BST (UK) »
It is sometimes a waiting game. If you can identify a suitable candidate then targeted testing can help. There is a very well known case of a Hill who was not a Hill who found his identity through DNA testing and it was the Y-DNA tests that provided the first clues:
Ha, eh? Just goes to show how dirt-common the surname is. ;) Yes, I had seen his story talked about at the FTDNA site.

Yes, what are needed here are more testees with the surname my Mr. Hill matches with, and we are working on that! I had immediate luck when I posted here at RootsChat recently -- a contact from someone else with a matching pair in the surname project in question, i.e. the one my Mr. Hill matched with. And I have actually just now encouraged that person, who is in the US and is, with their own match, a weak match with my testee and his match, but who seems to hook up with a Devon line, to get someone known to be from the Devon line into your project. I can't contribute any more myself, since it is a certainty that my James Hill c1795 has no male descendants, other than his grandson / my great-grandfather's several sons and their descendants, and James Hill himself remains an unknown factor ...

This case still stands as an excellent example of what YDNA testing can be used for, even if we don't yet have enough data! Of course, we may never have; there may be no living people whose genes carry the evidence needed here (i.e. who are male-line descendants of James Hill's male-line ancestors). Male lines not infrequently die out -- this one would have were it not for my gr-grfather's long and active reproductive life; I have an extinct surname in my own tree, where the last two brothers died childless in the early 1800s (while their sisters were fruitful). However, I am considering autosomal testing as well, and you never know.
HILL, HOARE, BOND, SIBLY, Cornwall (Devon); DENNIS, PAGE, WHITBREAD, Essex; BARNARD, CASTLE, PONTON, Wiltshire; SANKEY, HORNE, YOUNG, Kent; COWDELL, Bermondsey; COOPER, SMITH, FALLOWELL, WILLEY, Notts; CAMPION, CARTER, CRADDOCK, KENNY, Northants; LITTLER, CORNER, Leicestershire; RUSHLAND, Lincolnshire; MORRISON, Ireland; COLLINS, ?; ... MONCK?

Offline JaneyCanuck

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #87 on: Saturday 05 October 13 20:42 BST (UK) »
If you are relatively unusual it [a 12-marker YDNA match] may be interesting, but if you are a dead typical Brit it has a 70% chance of just saying that you are a dead typical Brit (e.g., Haplogroup R1b), and won't be good enough to confirm that you are related to someone with the same surname.

And just an anecdote on that. My Mr. Hill is R1b2 - dead typical. I would not even consider even reading the 12-marker matches. It would take me days. ;)

I have tested my male relations (both sides of my family) only to the 37-marker level. I need to step that up, and also get haplogroups properly tested (more SNPs) to rule out "ghost matches" - YDNA matches that are merely coincidental.

My other testee is I2b1/M233, much rarer in England. I have a paper trail in a village in Wiltshire back to the 1500s (no living memory beyond the late 1800s, but the paper is convincing).

I was contacted last month by someone who is two steps out from my testee at 25 markers. He is one of the poor USAmericans trying to find his roots. He has tested to 67 markers, so I identified his kit in his surname project and compared it with my testee's to 37 markers, and found they were a full 6 more steps out at that point -- a total of 8 steps out. No match at all, really. So even 25 markers is pretty useless testing.

His story is interesting, though. He can trace his surname back in the US quite a way -- to the first immigrant, before 1700. Beyond that, there are the usual wild and woolly family trees we see in the US. Someone has decided that immigrant came from Durham, but nobody seems to know why. He is rightly suspicious. So maybe someday someone in England will test, and will match closely enough that he will get pointed in the right direction. But at those distances, there is every possibility that the immigrant did not leave behind brothers who reproduced, at least down to the 20th century.

What his test may have done, however, is help somebody else solve a mystery.
Say he is Smith, and the other person is Jones.
Smith and Jones are 2 steps out at 37 markers. That is pretty close.
Jones has an "unknown Jones" ancestor in a particular US county in the early 1800s.
Smith knows that his grx2 grandfather was the not yet married sheriff of that county at exactly the time "unknown Jones" was born.

Given the closeness of their YDNA match -- 2 steps out at 37 markers, so far -- Smith may have provided the solution to Jones's mystery: unknown Jones appears likely to be a result of a "non-paternal event". There might have been a Ms. Jones whose son's father was Sheriff Smith -- or a Ms. X whose son by Sheriff Smith took the name of his stepfather Jones, or the philandering wife of a Mr. Jones ... or a woman named Jones, or who was married to or later married a Mr. Jones, who was assaulted by Sheriff Smith ...

So sometimes one's results, at least in the short term, may be more altruistic than directly useful to one's self. ;)
HILL, HOARE, BOND, SIBLY, Cornwall (Devon); DENNIS, PAGE, WHITBREAD, Essex; BARNARD, CASTLE, PONTON, Wiltshire; SANKEY, HORNE, YOUNG, Kent; COWDELL, Bermondsey; COOPER, SMITH, FALLOWELL, WILLEY, Notts; CAMPION, CARTER, CRADDOCK, KENNY, Northants; LITTLER, CORNER, Leicestershire; RUSHLAND, Lincolnshire; MORRISON, Ireland; COLLINS, ?; ... MONCK?

Offline DevonCruwys

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #88 on: Monday 07 October 13 21:44 BST (UK) »
Janey, You're quite right that you usually can't read anything into 12 or 25-marker matches. However, there are a few people who happen to have very rare values for one or two of the markers in the 12-marker panel and in these rare cases a 12-marker match is a good indicator of a genealogical match. However, I would always feel happier with results for more markers. Roughly 5% of the men in my Devon project have no matches even at 12 markers and that includes quite a few R1b men. At the other extreme some people have over 7000 matches at 12 markers!

Autosomal testing might possibly help in your situation if you can find a comparative candidate from the line in question. Fourth cousins only have a 50% chance of matching so there are diminishing returns the more generations you have to go back in time.
Researching: Ayshford, Berryman, Bodger, Boundy, Cruse, Cruwys, Dillon, Faithfull, Kennett, Keynes, Ratty, Tidbury, Trask, Westcott, Wiggins, Woolfenden.

Offline DudleyWinchurch

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Re: Surname Tests - Realistic Expectations
« Reply #89 on: Tuesday 15 October 13 04:06 BST (UK) »
Hi again,

I mentioned earlier in this thread that I was hoping to take an Autosomal DNA test to try to break down a break wall and would keep everyone updated on how it goes.  As it's a bit off-track for this thread, in order not to gate-crash, I have started a new thread here:

http://www.rootschat.com/forum/index.php?topic=664639.0

I'll be very interested in contributions, explanations and feedback.
McDonough, Oliver, McLoughlin, O'Brien, Cuthbert, Keegan, Quirk(e), O'Malley, McGuirk (Ireland)
Dudley, Winchurch, Wolverson, Brookes (Black Country)
Concannon, Moore, Markowski (Markesky), Mottram, Lawton (Black Country)