What’s the law of probability in ancestry?

[Silent Whale]

Is there a (genealogically-wise) mathematically formula that can be applied to working out the probability of people being related?

I only ask I as have this problem to solve: was Robert Andrews the father of Caroline Angelina Rebecca Fletcher?

Caroline Fletcher, b.1849 Maningtree, Essex, shown on 2 April 1871 (census) as a boarder in Colchester. Brother, William, lived in same street. Caroline would have got pregnant two months later.

Daughter - Caroline Angelina Rebecca Fletcher, b. 25 January 1872 Colchester, Essex - no father on birth certificate.

Mother – Caroline Fletcher marries Robert Andrews (b.1847 Cambridge) Q3 1872 - five to eight months after birth.

1881 and 1891 census shows Rebecca Andrews. She later marries in 1892 as C A R Fletcher.

(There is a C A R Andrews b.1850, d.1912 Colchester - could be a sister of Robert Andrews hence the 'C A R' for his first daughter? But that is from a death record so is assuming she never married)

Four more children followed all 'Andrews'; Henry 1874, Clara 1875, Joseph 1878 and Alice 1883.

Caroline Angelina Rebecca Fletcher marries Charles Thomas Gant and they have these children:

Lily Gant 1892 – 1918 - mother C A R Fletcher
Charles Thomas Gant 1894 – 1896
Caroline Angelina Rebecca Gant 1895 – 1980
Samuel Frank Gant 1897 – 1898
Arthur Stanley Gant 1899 – 1923
Alice MAY Gant 1902 – 1982
Rosalie ROSE Gant 1904 – 1993 - mother C A R Fletcher
Ernest SONNY Gant 1905 – 1987
William CHARLES Gant 1909 – 1989
Willie BILL Gant 1911 – 2003 - mother C A R Andrews
Hilda VIOLET Gant 1914 – 2005 - mother C A R Fletcher.

So was C A R an Andrews or a Fletcher? Did Robert marry the mother of his child five to eight months after she was born? Why the change between Fletcher and Andrews on her children's birth certificates?

Neil

[CaroleW]

I would say she was a Fletcher and that Robert was not her biological father.

If he was her father - she would have married as Andrews - not Fletcher

Is there a fathers name on her marriage cert

[Silent Whale]

Do you know - as I typed that post out - I did realise that I should get the marriage cert. However, have had this before where, just for the sake of not being embarrassed; brides (and grooms) have used the name of their step-father.

As she is listed in all the censuses as 'Andrews' then chances are that Robert Andrews will appear on the marriage cert - I'm off to order it now!

[toni*]

Caroline Fletcher, b.1849 Maningtree, Essex, shown on 2 April 1871 (census) as a boarder in Colchester. Brother, William, lived in same street. Caroline would have got pregnant two months later.

Daughter - Caroline Angelina Rebecca Fletcher, b. 25 January 1872 Colchester, Essex - no father on birth certificate.

and where was Robert Andrews at this time ?
also was dau Caroline christened ? sometimes the vicar would make a note in the margin of the father

[Silent Whale]

I can't find census records for Robert Andrews at all. Not an easy name to find until he marries Caroline. Even then at one time she's in Guildford workhouse with the kids and he's a painter in Portsmouth. Next census they are back together.

No christening records for Caroline either.

[toni*]

you have to realise the census is just a snapshot of one day in 10 years 

you would need to find possible candidates for Caroline jnr father i.e. who was in the village 9 months before she was born maybe maps , rate books and street directories will help you

re Robert when was he born and where what is his fathers name on his marriage cert ? were there any relatives as witnesses?

[CaroleW]

Hi Toni

re Robert when was he born and where what is his fathers name on his marriage cert

See opening post

Caroline Fletcher marries Robert Andrews (b.1847 Cambridge)

and from reply above

As she is listed in all the censuses as 'Andrews' then chances are that Robert Andrews will appear on the marriage cert - I'm off to order it now!

[behindthefrogs]

To go back to your basic question.  The laws of probability will be the same as for anything.

Is there a mathematical formula for actual probabilities?  The answer must be no.  For any two people there are far too many variables involved.  In a small area, where population movements can be measured between censuses it might be possible to work out some sort of formula but in that case it would be easier to use the facts to establish any actual relationship.

This sounds like the subject for a post graduate thesis.

David

[CaroleW]

May be something and nothing but the 1881 census for Robert has a possible middle initial - 1891/1901/1911 just show Robert

It is transcribed as a C but could be a J or an L

The free 1911 index shows them both in Colchester and they are shown under "Institution"