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Messages - Steve3180

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1
Northumberland / Re: Completed Post
« on: Saturday 24 May 25 00:05 BST (UK)  »
Can I take it from this post that it is not the practice on this forum to use the built in Topic Completed mechanism. I am fairly new on here, but not elsewhere, I have just been pressing the Topic Completed button when happy with the answers to topics I started.

2
Northumberland / Re: Belford Presbyterian records online?
« on: Thursday 22 May 25 13:18 BST (UK)  »
I'm a bit late to the party, but I've got access to Belford Erskine Street baptisms where there are 200 or so entries between 1793 and 1820, none of which are Johnson, or similar.

Sorry it's a negative answer.

These records are on the NDFHS website. I can fully recommend joining, it's £15 a year, and their online records are very useful if you have ancestors in Northumberland or Durham.

3
Thank you one and all for your input.

I had a play with the WATO tool and I love the way it generates hypotheses but the results it gave me are wild. The first tree I tried it complained that there was nobody over 40 cM, I Wish !, in total on the maternal side I only have 11 dna matches over 40 cM, 8 of which are placed and only 1 in the unknown group. So I tried the tree with the Unknown at 56 cM, unfortunately sparser than the other, and as its most likely hypothesis it suggested 6 generations between 1874 and 1955, with lesser results even worse. I know a lot of people use this so I need to look at how best to present my data to it so I get sensible results.

The suggestion by Carmella was interesting also and possibly the most applicable as it was UK focused and understood that a lot fewer people test here. The chap who wrote it has a book out which I've just bought on Kindle but it's 500 pages so that might take a while to read.

I have a copy of "Genetic Genealogy in Practice" by Blaine Bettinger, which was useful originally but doesn't offer any help in this regard.

There's a new edition of the Graham Holton book out which I'm planning to get when they produce a Kindle version.

A few people mentioned drilling down to find candidates to test. Am I to understand you just find people who haven't tested but would likely be useful and write them a letter or something ? Does this actually get results ? I can't even get people who have already tested to reply !

I think in reality I'm just going to end up back at the waiting game as Biggles said. I've been at this five years now since the dna test, and fifteen before that and I thought I had enough, but it's not looking good.

4
As you say the y-dna won't help.
There is no evidence that my GGM had any other children after my GM, she was 38 at that time. The earlier children were all from her first husband. A few years later she married her second husband and was living with him and his child (not hers) with the earlier children in orphanages or living with siblings. All of this was investigated at depth several times years ago and again in the light of dna. The first husband is not the father (or grandfather which was an examined if slight possibility), and neither is the second husband. None of the suspected dna matches (the Unknown group) have close enough matches to be able to assume any surnames. The Unknown group, where they have trees, have ancestors in the area outlined above in the late 19th century and beyond, so almost certainly a local rather than a seaman.
So what I am left with is a man between the ages of 20 and 60, with an unknown name, maybe one of the Potentials' names, but maybe not as they may be a couple of generations away, who was in or within traveling distance of Sunderland in mid 1892.
Ideally they had another child whose descendant gets a dna test, they would then be my H2C with about a 120 cM match. There is currently no-one anywhere near that, who is an Unknown, on Ancestry, MyHeritage, Gedmatch or FamilyTreeDNA.
That leaves me with a lot of Potentials who are probably at least one or two generations removed from my GGF so I need to reduce the number down to less than ten, say, and examine them closely.
I am currently looking at BanyanDNA as a way of testing the likelihood of connections but it will be a lot of work as it is really does the inverse of what I need. It tests given Hypotheses and what I need is it to tell me the most likely Hypothesis.
Hence the original question, I'm looking for another angle of attack.
 

5
Biggles, thanks for the pointer, I've gone through that post and looked at it all including #28. That's pretty much what I've been doing. It's relatively easy to identify dna matches in the Unknown group as geographically they're pretty distinct. A lot of them are via shared matches and don't have trees but for those that do I build trees if I can, I now have 5, maybe 6, trees that are promising and have between 3 and 10 dna matches in them connecting to their common ancestors.

My original idea was to build these trees forming a canopy, if you like, over the target ancestor and join up the trees with the joins focusing down to the target. This hasn't worked at all ! In six years of doing this I've only managed to join two of the trees together. Even the two trees that have common cross matches on the dna are stubbornly refusing to connect.

So now I have too much data, the tree I'm currently looking at which is the conjoined one would probably yield over fifty Potentials. The same attribute that makes them easy to detect also makes a large number of Potentials. They are all within a 12 miles square box on Tyneside and Wearside, which in the year in question, 1892, would probably as easy to travel around as it is now (trains everywhere). Also being the male side the age range is very broad, I'm using 20-60 but if could be outside that even. None of the Unknown group have very close matches (I have very few close matches in general), the closest being 56 cM and all the rest less than 40 cM, so maybe 3rd cousins but mostly fourth and over.

I have pretty much given up trying to join the various trees and so am looking for other ways to focus the data, possibly statistical. Is the book you mention "Tracing Your Ancestors Using DNA" ?

6
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Methodologies for finding unknown ancestors
« on: Saturday 10 May 25 11:47 BST (UK)  »
Does anybody know of any Books, Academic Papers, Websites or anything else that has a methodology for discovering the identity of unknown ancestors (specifically in my case Great-Grandfather)
One of my two main goals when I first did the dna test was to discover the identity of my Grandmothers father which is blank on her birth cert. I was hoping for a bunch of 2nd cousins to pop up and point directly, but no such luck.
Over the years I have collected about 100 matches who I think are related to me through this unknown GGF and built several trees connecting some of them together but I currently feel that although I've got a lot of data I'm still stumbling around trying to get lucky somewhere.
What I need now is a methodology I can apply to this data and testing techniques to somehow validate what is currently just an intuitive feel.
For example if I take two dna matches and find a common ancestor for them that may be on the same line to me or it may not, but what are the odds of each and how are those odds altered if I find three or four or more going to the same common ancestor. Intuitively I feel as though three or four matches connecting to the same ancestor would be on the path to me but I would like some maths to back this up.

Anybody ?

7
The Common Room / Re: GRO Index - Page number with suffix
« on: Sunday 06 April 25 20:17 BST (UK)  »
Ah yes I see what you mean, the arrow indicates that the entry now has a different position in the alphabetical ordered index.

I'm going to take it as one person called Elizabeth J.

Thanks for the assist.

8
The Common Room / GRO Index - Page number with suffix
« on: Sunday 06 April 25 19:54 BST (UK)  »
I am looking at a couple of entries in FreeBMD thus -

{SURNAME} Jean              {Mother} Sunderland 1a 1201
{SURNAME} Elizabeth J     {Mother} Sunderland 1a 1201a

I thought originally this was twins but now I'm wondering if the J stands for Jean and the suffixed entry is a name change.
Anybody come across this before and know the answer ?

PS
The names are redacted as they could well be still alive. It's a year not included in the GRO website so I can't look up the full name.

9
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: Need a rant - Anc*stry Trees and thru lines
« on: Thursday 03 April 25 21:03 BST (UK)  »
I like to distinguish Thru Lines from Common Ancestors although I suppose they're really the same thing.

Thru Lines I take to mean the suggestion of parents for my Tree Tops, these are 100% useless for me.

Common Ancestors being the connection from a point on my tree to a DNA match. These I find very useful being able to make connections via one or more (possibly private) third party trees which I would never have found. These have given me hundreds of connections and although not 100% is very useful.

What I really want is a way to reject a suggestion so that Ancestry will suggest a different connection. I can block the Thru Lines by creating an unknown parent but what I want is further suggestions.


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