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Messages - 4b2

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1
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: 23andMe declares Bankruptcy
« on: Thursday 01 May 25 18:51 BST (UK)  »
I've got -

Matches with confirmed ancestry:

430 from Ancestry
12 from MyHeritage
7 from 23AndMe
3 from FTDNA

Matches with common ancestors, but unconfirmed link to self:

450 from Ancestry
21 from MyHeritage

So also < 4% from MyHeritage.

2
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: 23andMe declares Bankruptcy
« on: Thursday 01 May 25 13:47 BST (UK)  »
My Heritage has by far the worst Ethnicity predictions, hardly surprising as they are second division when compared to the resources available in Ancestry.

Concur with this. I can't view the results now, but my father and his sister have completely different results. My aunt is mostly Celtic and my father is mostly English. Other tests have some inconceivable results. With Ancestry sibling tests tend to be a few percent different, as you'd expect with the bounds of random inheritance.

I only have one test of about 30 where there appears there might be something that it really wrong.

Although it should be taken with a pinch of salt, it's particularly useful if you have ancestry that can't reasonably be traced or if you want to find out if a family fable of an unusual descent was true.

Of course, most people are unaware of the science and caveats and like to post of their 1% native America etc.

3
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: 23andMe declares Bankruptcy
« on: Thursday 01 May 25 13:26 BST (UK)  »
MyHeritage is better for continental Europe. In my limited expedience Ancestry has close to no coverage for Germany and Scandinavia. Almost all matches for such lineages will likely be from immigrants, mainly to the US.

The main benefit of Ancestry is the database size - https://isogg.org/wiki/Autosomal_DNA_testing_comparison_chart

Ancestry at 27m and MyHeritage at 9m.

With Ancestry's skew to tests in the US, Canada, UK, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand, it means people with heritage US and British ancestry will get far many more matches on Ancestry. You will find even higher number of matches if you have Jewish ancestry and Mormon ancestry or relatives. As those people take so many tests.

Then there is the situation with Ancestry's timber system, which strips out what they believe are false positives. The rate of false positives on MyHeritage is around 70-80%. So the majority of your matches are not reasonably close relatives, but people who share a common region of ancestry. This seriously hampers finding real DNA relatives, as if you find common ancestry in a cluster of matches on MyHeritage, you have a high chance they are not actually closer DNA relatives. I'd say the false positives on Ancestry >= 30cM are 0%. Below that it's difficult to tell, but it's much less than MyHeritage.

So if you have US, British ancestry you will be able to find multiples more matches, in the range of 40X-50X, with a high degree of confidence. MyHeritage is useful for closer matches, mostly above 100cm. Below after around that level you get false positives.

The MyHeritage cM values are also less helpful, because they don't strip out identical by state (false positive) segments. Below 100cM matches, you need to multiply the cM by 0.6 to get a closer idea of the identical by descent shared cM. So for a typical US or British tester, by the time you've got through your 1st page of DNA matches, you are probably down to people who are 4th-5th cousins. By the time you are through to page 7-10, you are dealing with people with whom you share about 15cM, which might be identical by descent, but is more likely to not be. And 15cM is a very ambiguous amount, as it's at the threshold where it's not not uncommon for 15cM to be inherited (nearly) unbroken over multiple generations. Around 15cM is the average size of segments inherited from either parent.

In terms of Ancestry:

>= 30cm - you will likely be able to find a relationship if there is no NPE, a tree and no brick walls, relationships usually quite predictable
20-29cM - these sizes can be much more ambiguous in terms of relationship, owing to the possibility of smaller segments being inherited (mostly) unbroken
13-19cM - progressively more ambiguous
8-12cM - the range where segments could potentially push outside of the reasonably feasible to research window of ancestry

While you probably only have 10-20 >= 30cM identical by descent on MyHeritage, on Ancestry you'll have more like 200.

With Ancestry, you will typically get several to about 50 matches in a cluster, even for 4th-5th cousins. With multiple people related in the main window that is not so difficult to research (1775-). You look through their trees to find common surnames, places and ultimate ancestors. Heritage just doesn't have enough matches to be able to do that very consistently. Since many matches will have no tree, NPE, or dead ends that aren't easy/possible to solve.

If I go through my Ancestry matches down to about 20cM, if you exclude the ones that have no tree or not enough of on to reasonably find out their ancestry, I know how about 75% are related to me, or I have them in files where common ancestors have been found among the matches. (I have three NPE lines and a suspected adoption, which most of those relate to). Yet if I go through the MyHeritage matches down to Ancestry-comparable 20cM, I don't know how I am related to 90% of them. For the vast majority of them I don't even known what side (paternal, maternal) I am related to them on, never mind the actual line of ancestry. While with Ancestry, for 20cM+ matches, I know which line of ancestry they relate to in most cases. Owing to Ancestry having many more matches.

With Ancestry DNA I've been able to break down 7-8 brick walls, prove most of my lines back to between about 1650-1775, identified a likely adoption, have solid leads and some known ancestors for three NPEs, and expect to be able to solve more lines into the future. Also solved the paternity of a friend's paternal grandfather (who it turns out was my grandfather's half 3rd cousin) and united a few unknown half-siblings. Comparing to MyHeritage, I've just got matches who have provided no clues to break down brick walls, and an unknown ~2nd cousin match where I don't even known if they are a paternal or maternal match.

That's why Ancestry wins hands down, and the competition are not close. Despite their bleeding of their loyal customers and having developed their system very little.

The best process for getting the most out of genealogy DNA is:

1) test with Ancestry
2) upload that test to MyHeritage + FTDNA for free
3) test with 23AndMe (not sure what will happen with that)
4) systematically go through the matches to find common ancestors among them

4
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: 23andMe declares Bankruptcy
« on: Wednesday 30 April 25 12:20 BST (UK)  »
Biggles, I am looking forward to part two of your recent comment. The way I see it Ancestry prey on naive people who don't really know what they are buying. Most people, when I am looking at my matches, seem to think that they are going to be told every ancestor they ever had and where they were all born. That's why you see so many people that have themselves and just their parents in their tree. Their website, judging by the numerous comments of complaint here, is frequently in disrepair.  The price for a test seems exorbitant, even though they are cheaper than a few years ago.

In balance, I'm thoroughly impressed with myHeritage. I first came into contact with them seven or eight years ago when they were doing a pro bono offer, helping people identify adoptions and mysteries in their life. They gave me and tens of thousands of other people, free tests. Their range of statistics is far superior to Ancestry, their support is friendly and courteous and prompt, which you certainly can't say about Ancestry.

A couple of years ago, when I became really enthusiastic, I did pay for an Ancestry test, and was very disappointed that there was no chromosome browser, and no detailed segment data. And now they have the cheek to actually start charging for a little bit more information. I certainly won't be renewing at the end of the month.  I would even be very reluctant to pay for any further ancestry tests in light of my earlier comments. I think this is why they are doing this one month free offer. They are getting desperate.

Zaph

If I may be permitted to add a little. It is true that Ancestry has weak spots in its lack of a chromosome browser. I have posted several suggested ideas that they could offer beyond that, which would offer a lot more and save a lot of time. They should really be offering some of that for the £8 per month, including a chromosome browser.

I have some info on what's going on internally. Ancestry had a affiliate program. And they've basically decided to nuke its potential growth by reducing commissions to basically zero. Thus they are now taking in close to the full value that can be obtained and there is no longer financial incentive for affiliate to generate content. FindMyPast has also done this. Affiliates are an important part of any sector, as many blogs and reference sites rely on it and other ads to incentivise content generation. So you see a lot more MyHeritage ads now, as they are still offering good incentives.

I think this was done as a cash grab. Since the effects of COVID-related money printing and the Ukraine war, discretionary spending has been hit. Ancestry lost $200m in the last few years. It looks like they are looking to squeeze what cash cows they have for what they can.

The growth of DNA testing has slowed. You can see that most of your new matches come from kits gifted at Christmas. And so the new ProTools has been a very slow and low-value offering to extract a bit more money from the most loyal customers.

As a programmer I am a bit surprised how slow and thin their Pro offerings are for DNA. I have developed some tools to download a kit's match list, the attached trees and shared matches. This allows me to very quickly identify clusters of matches, any shared DNA, and shared ancestry in trees, shared surnames and shared locations. The through lines and common matches feature is good. But there is nothing to help you find the literal hundreds of clusters of matches that might be from unknown common ancestors. It would take a few months to develop a very robust interface to auto-cluster all matches, look for potential common links automatically and provide a facility to manage your work with each cluster. But Ancestry is so slow to do anything.

I have or have contact with people from FindMyPast, Ancestry, MyHeritage and FamilySearch. There isn't a question that Ancstry have always been the worst most faceless people to deal with. I did have a good contact with FindMyPast, but after they left they took the faceless Ancestry approach. Always very good dealing with MyHritage.

But in terms of Anglosphere ancestry, Ancestry has far many more tests than MyHeritage. About 97% of the DNA matches I've found are on Ancestry. And a good part of that is because something like 70-80% of the matches on MyHeritage are false positives. So looking at many MyHeritage matches is a wild goose chase, where there is no definitive sign that it is such a chase.. That's where much of the value comes in. They also have a vast repository of trees. When I am extending small MyHeritage match trees, I look up dead-end ancestors on Ancestry.

5
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: Stumped by T-M70 Haplogroup for McQuire
« on: Wednesday 30 April 25 11:48 BST (UK)  »
R-M269 is my haplogroup.

Knowing it is of Zero use to me in researching my family history.

Knowing that for the last few thousands of years my ancestors were in Western Europe is not telling me anything useful as it is far to general.

Even forking out excessive amounts of cash for a Big y test is only going to refine the result to a sub-branch which then is still going to be of little Genealogical use as again it is generic by nature.

Hopefully MyHeritage or Ancestry will buy FTDNA one day, as it seems clear that FTDNA don't have the necessary attributes to take Y + mt testing to a consumer audience. It's mostly used by hardened genealogists and people searching for their father. I am fairly sure the price of Y-DNA tests could be significantly reduced. Their autosomal business has obviously been nuked and all they have left really is the seemingly overpriced Y tests. You can get full genome tests for about the same now.

I also see that Peter Thiel's fund is looking to acquire 23AndMe to their already existing DNA company:

Nucleus Genomics, a New York-based whole-genome testing company, is connected to Peter Thiel. It is backed by Thiel’s Founders Fund, among other investors, and its CEO, Kian Sadeghi, has expressed interest in acquiring 23andMe, particularly for its telehealth subsidiary, Lemonaid.

Nucleus Genomics is a New York-based company specializing in whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and genetic analysis to provide personalized health insights. Unlike many genetic tests that analyze less than 0.1% of DNA, Nucleus sequences the entire genome—approximately 6 billion letters—to identify millions of variants that may impact health.

Their full genome test is actually less than the FTDNA Big-Y test, which give an impression of how overpriced it is.

It would be nice if a boat load of VC cash could be used to bootstrap another outfit offering genealogy DNA services, to boost the number of people you can match to and hopefully get better coverage for Y and mt matching.

From what I'm reading whole genome would offer better sifting of identical by state and descent segments, in short better weeding out of false positives.

Autosomal Tests: These typically analyze ~600,000–700,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the 22 autosomal chromosomes, covering less than 0.1% of the genome. They focus on common SNPs selected for ancestry and health insights but miss many rare or private variants.

WGS: Sequences all ~6 billion base pairs of the genome, including all autosomal SNPs, rare variants, and structural variations (e.g., insertions, deletions). This provides millions of data points, capturing virtually all genetic variation relevant to relatedness.

The denser data from WGS allows detection of smaller and more numerous shared DNA segments, increasing the chance of identifying matches with distant relatives who share fewer or less common segments.

Autosomal Tests: These rely on identifying identical by descent (IBD) segments, typically requiring a minimum length (e.g., 7–10 centiMorgans [cM]) to confirm a match. For 4th cousins, who share 0.2% of DNA (13–20 cM on average), the segments are often small or fragmented, leading to a ~50% detection rate due to limitations in SNP coverage or recombination events breaking up segments.

WGS: Captures all DNA variants, enabling detection of shorter IBD segments (e.g., <7 cM) with higher confidence. It also identifies rare variants shared by descent, which autosomal tests might miss. This increases the sensitivity for detecting distant relationships.

***

I've got five y-DNA test so far. Only one big-Y, but you can often determine some of your recent haplogroups if your closest matches have taken big-Y. From that, you can extrapolate out migration path. Though it is somewhat circumstantial, the results are more of a best guess. One example:



For this specific line it appears it was probably part of the latest Bell Beaker immigration to Britain, c. 1800 BC, rather than the later Celtic migrations from c. 1250 BC to the Roman conquest.

So with the data you can get a reasonable idea of what historic peoples your line was part of. There is quite a wealth of archeological research on prehistoric cultures. You can get a reasonable idea of which pre-Roman tribes your ancestor belonged to in Celtic Britain, Germanic peoples, and early Celtic cultures of Europe. You can also see fairly clearly if your line ended up switching from Celtic to Germanic via conquest, or vice versa. Since the area that is now Germany was the intermediary zone between the Bell Beaker culture that likely spoke a predecessor of Celtic and the adjacent Corded Ware culture, that likely spoke Balto-Slavic.

6
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: 23andMe declares Bankruptcy
« on: Wednesday 30 April 25 10:54 BST (UK)  »
After the DNA leak debacle it does not really come as a surprise.

Way back when we were first looking to test we did look at what was available, if I remember rightly it only took us a few minutes to determine that 23&me were only interested in extracting cash and that their security was suspect.

Similar with My Heritage, cash input rules, questionable aspects to the presentation of results.

So it was a no brainer Ancestry, by far the biggest, a well integrated website with DNA central to true Biological Genealogy.

Have you taken 23AndMe? I have the one mentioned from one maternal aunt and it's thrown up the otherwise unknown cousins. The other closer matches don't provide anything new in terms of solving lines. Maybe there are useful matches at a lower level. But since you can't really get anywhere without sending messages, and there are false positives.

I tried to get a paternal aunt to test with 23AndMe too, since I have three unsolved/partially solved births out of wedlock in that side. But the only draw to it really is the prospect of 2nd-3rd cousin matches on there.

7
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: 23andMe declares Bankruptcy
« on: Tuesday 29 April 25 13:42 BST (UK)  »
It is probably worth saving the details of your most promising matches from 23AndMe.

I logged in as they told me I had some new relatives. When I looked at my match list I found that my two closes matches had disappeared. These were a 1st cousin of my aunt and her son. Though this was via a birth out of wedlock. So I am lucky to have saved another info to be able to know who they are.

To this date I've only noticed on other match disappear from MyHeritage, in that case I had it saved in my bookmarks, which contained enough info, as well as my memory, to know who it was.

8
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: Stumped by T-M70 Haplogroup for McQuire
« on: Tuesday 29 April 25 10:56 BST (UK)  »
Now I'm puzzled too.  I tested with ftdna > 5 years ago (Y67) and their website tells me I'm T-M70.  It also tells me it has no Y-DNA matches for me at even the Y12 level.    Why do we not see each other?

At 12 markers the furthest back ago you will get matches is about 2000 BC. But that varies. And there can be false positives at that level. So the likelihood is that you are from another sub-clade to the OP.

T-M70 is from around 13,000 BC according to FTDNA.

9
Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing / Re: Stumped by T-M70 Haplogroup for McQuire
« on: Tuesday 29 April 25 10:51 BST (UK)  »
T-FT8342

It may not have many matches, as the matches may be from populations that are not much tested, i.e. outside of the US.

The best that can be said is that around 6,000 years ago the lineage appeared to be in the Middle East, maybe Arabia specifically. So there is not much information to suggest a possible lineage. Given there are two bearers of the parent haplogroup in Italy, it could have found it's way in during the Roman Empire. Rome had many trade links with what is now Arabia.

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