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General => Ancestral Family Tree DNA Testing => Topic started by: 1931census on Monday 06 March 23 18:52 GMT (UK)

Title: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: 1931census on Monday 06 March 23 18:52 GMT (UK)
X is looking for her grandfather (her mother was illegitimate). The best candidate is 'Y'.

Match 1: Y's grandaughter, 'Ann': (potential half first cousin) - 473cM (7% shared)
Match 2: Y's brother's (W) grandson, 'Joe': (potential second cousin) - 318cM (5% shared)
Match 3: Y's brother's (W) great-grandson, 'Lee': (potential second cousin 1x removed) - 194cM (3%)
Match 4: Y's brother's (W) granddaughter, 'Rae': (potential second cousin) - 155cM (2%)
Match 5: Rae's son, 'Lou': (potential second cousin 1x removed) - 123cM (2%)
Match 6: Y's cousin's grandson, 'Don': (potential second cousin 1x removed?) - 71cM (1%)
Match 7: Don's son 'Ron': (potential second cousin 2x removed?) - 54cM (1%)

How likely is it that Y is the father? Ann only shares 253cM with Joe.

(Please do not tell me to do more research. This is as much as I have been able to do over 3 years!)
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: Biggles50 on Monday 06 March 23 22:28 GMT (UK)
There looks to be a high probability you are right, DNA Painter gives it as 88%.

If you have built a family tree of them then you could upload it to DNA painters WATO tool, add in the cM values and generate a probability chart.

If the DNA data is also on a comparison site like Gedmatch you could use their tools to get a better idea of segment matching
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: brigidmac on Monday 06 March 23 22:39 GMT (UK)
It looks probable to me
Does X have any children or grandchildren who could test too?
If  you have more than one generation tested you can triangulate results

I manage 3 generations of my familys DNA and sometimes the younger generation get a stronger hit to the branch im looking at .

The fact that X has matches to more than one sibling + cousins descendants is quite conclusive .
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: 1931census on Monday 06 March 23 23:19 GMT (UK)
It looks probable to me
Does X have any children or grandchildren who could test too?
If  you have more than one generation tested you can triangulate results

I manage 3 generations of my familys DNA and sometimes the younger generation get a stronger hit to the branch im looking at .

The fact that X has matches to more than one sibling + cousins descendants is quite conclusive .

Yes X has a daughter and granddaughter who tested. Her daughter's matches:

Ann: 216cM (3%)
Joe: 249cM (4%)
Lee: 123cM (2%)
Rae: 51cM (<1%)
Lou: 28cM (<1%)
Don: 69cM (<1%)
Ron: 61cM (<1%)

Her granddaughter's matches:

Ann: 146cM (2%)
Joe: 223cM (3%)
Lee: 96cM (1%)
Rae: 15cM (<1%)
Lou: No match
Don: 62cM (<1%)
Ron: 55cM (<1%)
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: 1931census on Monday 06 March 23 23:19 GMT (UK)
It looks probable to me
Does X have any children or grandchildren who could test too?
If  you have more than one generation tested you can triangulate results

I manage 3 generations of my familys DNA and sometimes the younger generation get a stronger hit to the branch im looking at .

The fact that X has matches to more than one sibling + cousins descendants is quite conclusive .

Yes X has a child and grandchild who tested. Her child's matches:

Ann: 216cM (3%)
Joe: 249cM (4%)
Lee: 123cM (2%)
Rae: 51cM (<1%)
Lou: 28cM (<1%)
Don: 69cM (<1%)
Ron: 61cM (<1%)

Her grandchild's matches:

Ann: 146cM (2%)
Joe: 223cM (3%)
Lee: 96cM (1%)
Rae: 15cM (<1%)
Lou: No match
Don: 62cM (<1%)
Ron: 55cM (<1%)
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: Ruskie on Tuesday 07 March 23 04:44 GMT (UK)
Does Y have any brothers? If he does, considering other options, does it fit cM wise with the matches that one of the brothers could be the father?  :-\
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: 1931census on Tuesday 07 March 23 07:56 GMT (UK)
Does Y have any brothers? If he does, considering other options, does it fit cM wise with the matches that one of the brothers could be the father?  :-\

Yes, thats the problem. Y has 5 brothers that were potentially of the right age, including W, the grandfather/ great-grandfather of Joe, Lee, Rae and Lou. One of the brothers had no children, and the other three do not appear to have has descendents who took DNA tests.
The only thing that pointed me towards Y is the fact that X had the closest match with his granddaughter Ann, and that Ann matched 473cM with X versus just 253cM with her confirmed second cousin Joe.
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: Ruskie on Tuesday 07 March 23 08:24 GMT (UK)
I understand that you don’t want to accuse one brother if there is a chance that another one is responsible.  ;D

Others might have suggestions on how best to determine likelihood of one brother over the other/s.

Can you place any of the brothers in the same location as the girl when conception is likley to have taken place?

DNA is passed down randomly and although you can often get a good idea of relationships, sometimes it is not as accurate and can appear closer or more distant than expected.

Good luck with the search. You seem to be frustratingly close. I hope someone who has experience with this sort of thing can help you further.



Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: brigidmac on Tuesday 07 March 23 08:44 GMT (UK)
It is difficult because cousins can share similar  Amounts to half siblings
I'm comparing with my mother's known half cousins on both sides and our 3 generations

There are Variations to mums paternal halfciR
Mt generation Match between 48-75cm but her grandson matches by116cm

I think you have to look at the segment amount too
 Mums maternal half C is a 336cm match 9seg
He matches me and my cousin exactly 192cm
7 segs +14segs
+Next generation 54cm 3segs

Your examples to W seem higher thru the generations
Isn't he more likely to be the grandfather

There are other possibilities depending on the ages of the 5 brothers could the youngest have been a son brought up by the paternal grandparents . Can you absolutely rule out that the birth father is not the generation above ie the 5 boys father that would explain the high matches to younger generation



I'm afraid that once you've narrowed it down to brothers you can't tell difference between connections to their nephews or sons to who could be X s half uncle or father .or

Only clues from location . Occupation. Opportunity and possibly  from name of the baby ..



Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: brigidmac on Tuesday 07 March 23 08:47 GMT (UK)
Posted at same time as Ruskie

Does X Have any DNA links to the mother's family of Y W +brothers
Just to rule out that their father wasnt the "culprit"
"
Do they all have the same mother  ?
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: brigidmac on Tuesday 07 March 23 09:22 GMT (UK)
Can I also ask what year X s mother was born
And where 

I expect you have the birth certificate
But sometimes there is an extra clue in the baptism.

Also the birth mother or the parish may have taken the putative father to court for maintenance payments.

Other avenues to explore .
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: 1931census on Tuesday 07 March 23 12:51 GMT (UK)
Posted at same time as Ruskie

Does X Have any DNA links to the mother's family of Y W +brothers
Just to rule out that their father wasnt the "culprit"
"
Do they all have the same mother  ?

Hello. X doesn't seem to have any maternal family links HOWEVER i have struggled to trace the maternal family due to Polish records being spotty at best so I may be missing something.

The brothers' father would have been 57 at the time, so I suppose he is a possibility.

They all had the same mother. There were ten children in total - 8 sons, 2 daughters. 6 were of the appropriate age to be X's grandfather.
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: 1931census on Tuesday 07 March 23 12:53 GMT (UK)
Can I also ask what year X s mother was born
And where 

I expect you have the birth certificate
But sometimes there is an extra clue in the baptism.

Also the birth mother or the parish may have taken the putative father to court for maintenance payments.

Other avenues to explore .

X's mother was born in 1919. I do have the birth certificate. I haven't been able to find a baptism or any court records. Do you know where I would look for those?
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: 1931census on Tuesday 07 March 23 13:00 GMT (UK)
It is difficult because cousins can share similar  Amounts to half siblings
I'm comparing with my mother's known half cousins on both sides and our 3 generations

There are Variations to mums paternal halfciR
Mt generation Match between 48-75cm but her grandson matches by116cm

I think you have to look at the segment amount too
 Mums maternal half C is a 336cm match 9seg
He matches me and my cousin exactly 192cm
7 segs +14segs
+Next generation 54cm 3segs

Your examples to W seem higher thru the generations
Isn't he more likely to be the grandfather

There are other possibilities depending on the ages of the 5 brothers could the youngest have been a son brought up by the paternal grandparents . Can you absolutely rule out that the birth father is not the generation above ie the 5 boys father that would explain the high matches to younger generation



I'm afraid that once you've narrowed it down to brothers you can't tell difference between connections to their nephews or sons to who could be X s half uncle or father .or

Only clues from location . Occupation. Opportunity and possibly  from name of the baby ..

As far as I know, they were all living relatively near to the right place. The baby's name had no family connections. Y was a tailor, W was a hairdresser. The other brothers had similar jobs. And it's true I cannot confirm that Y and W's father was not the father, though knowing what X's grandmother was like, it seems less likely to me.

I don't know about W being the father though, as although it is true X and her family matched quite closely with Joe, one of his grandsons, they matched far less closely with Rae and Lou (grandson and great-grandson respectively), with X's granddaughter not even matching with Lou at all.
Title: Re: Likelihood of grandfatherhood.
Post by: brigidmac on Tuesday 07 March 23 21:13 GMT (UK)
Have messaged you .

Court records
May be in local record office
I paid a professional to do that search because affiliation orders are not easy to find .

What area was the birth .did the mother go away or stay in locality where she lived ?

Did she work ?