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England (Counties as in 1851-1901) => England => Essex => Topic started by: Silent Whale on Saturday 23 October 10 15:34 BST (UK)
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Is there a (genealogically-wise) mathematically formula that can be applied to working out the probability of people being related?
I only ask I as have this problem to solve: was Robert Andrews the father of Caroline Angelina Rebecca Fletcher?
Caroline Fletcher, b.1849 Maningtree, Essex, shown on 2 April 1871 (census) as a boarder in Colchester. Brother, William, lived in same street. Caroline would have got pregnant two months later.
Daughter - Caroline Angelina Rebecca Fletcher, b. 25 January 1872 Colchester, Essex - no father on birth certificate.
Mother – Caroline Fletcher marries Robert Andrews (b.1847 Cambridge) Q3 1872 - five to eight months after birth.
1881 and 1891 census shows Rebecca Andrews. She later marries in 1892 as C A R Fletcher.
(There is a C A R Andrews b.1850, d.1912 Colchester - could be a sister of Robert Andrews hence the 'C A R' for his first daughter? But that is from a death record so is assuming she never married)
Four more children followed all 'Andrews'; Henry 1874, Clara 1875, Joseph 1878 and Alice 1883.
Caroline Angelina Rebecca Fletcher marries Charles Thomas Gant and they have these children:
Lily Gant 1892 – 1918 - mother C A R Fletcher
Charles Thomas Gant 1894 – 1896
Caroline Angelina Rebecca Gant 1895 – 1980
Samuel Frank Gant 1897 – 1898
Arthur Stanley Gant 1899 – 1923
Alice MAY Gant 1902 – 1982
Rosalie ROSE Gant 1904 – 1993 - mother C A R Fletcher
Ernest SONNY Gant 1905 – 1987
William CHARLES Gant 1909 – 1989
Willie BILL Gant 1911 – 2003 - mother C A R Andrews
Hilda VIOLET Gant 1914 – 2005 - mother C A R Fletcher.
So was C A R an Andrews or a Fletcher? Did Robert marry the mother of his child five to eight months after she was born? Why the change between Fletcher and Andrews on her children's birth certificates?
Neil
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I would say she was a Fletcher and that Robert was not her biological father.
If he was her father - she would have married as Andrews - not Fletcher
Is there a fathers name on her marriage cert
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Do you know - as I typed that post out - I did realise that I should get the marriage cert. However, have had this before where, just for the sake of not being embarrassed; brides (and grooms) have used the name of their step-father.
As she is listed in all the censuses as 'Andrews' then chances are that Robert Andrews will appear on the marriage cert - I'm off to order it now!
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Caroline Fletcher, b.1849 Maningtree, Essex, shown on 2 April 1871 (census) as a boarder in Colchester. Brother, William, lived in same street. Caroline would have got pregnant two months later.
Daughter - Caroline Angelina Rebecca Fletcher, b. 25 January 1872 Colchester, Essex - no father on birth certificate.
and where was Robert Andrews at this time ?
also was dau Caroline christened ? sometimes the vicar would make a note in the margin of the father
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I can't find census records for Robert Andrews at all. Not an easy name to find until he marries Caroline. Even then at one time she's in Guildford workhouse with the kids and he's a painter in Portsmouth. Next census they are back together.
No christening records for Caroline either.
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you have to realise the census is just a snapshot of one day in 10 years :)
you would need to find possible candidates for Caroline jnr father i.e. who was in the village 9 months before she was born maybe maps , rate books and street directories will help you
re Robert when was he born and where what is his fathers name on his marriage cert ? were there any relatives as witnesses?
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Hi Toni
re Robert when was he born and where what is his fathers name on his marriage cert
See opening post
Caroline Fletcher marries Robert Andrews (b.1847 Cambridge)
and from reply above
As she is listed in all the censuses as 'Andrews' then chances are that Robert Andrews will appear on the marriage cert - I'm off to order it now!
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To go back to your basic question. The laws of probability will be the same as for anything.
Is there a mathematical formula for actual probabilities? The answer must be no. For any two people there are far too many variables involved. In a small area, where population movements can be measured between censuses it might be possible to work out some sort of formula but in that case it would be easier to use the facts to establish any actual relationship.
This sounds like the subject for a post graduate thesis.
David
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May be something and nothing but the 1881 census for Robert has a possible middle initial - 1891/1901/1911 just show Robert
It is transcribed as a C but could be a J or an L
The free 1911 index shows them both in Colchester and they are shown under "Institution"
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I'm going on a hunch that this is him in 1861 in Hertfordshire.
You will be particularly interested in the 1871 entry a daughter called Angelina - too coincidental I think!!
1861
Robert Andrews 38 watch & clock maker b Waterbeach Cambs
Catherine A 37 b Middlesex
Robert L 14 b Cambs
Henry W 10 ditto
Albert A 7 ditto
Charles E 5 b Hitchin Herts
Clara E 2 ditto
RG9 Piece 819 Folio 5 Page 3
1871 for Hitchin
Robert Andrews 48 watch & clock maker b Waterbeach Cambs
Catherine Ann 47 b London
Albert Alexander 17 b Cambs
Charles Edward 15 b Hitchin
Clara Emma 12 b Hitchin
Angelina A 9 b Hitchin
Mary Laxton 73 aunt b Cambs
RG10; Piece: 1368; Folio: 22; Page: 36
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Thanks all for your input. The law of probability formula was more clutching at straws as I have others in my tree which have taken the name of a 'father' five years later! This one just so close to call that I was hoping somebody would just say - that's a logical assumption; which of course opens up a direct line on an otherwise dead end! Let's face it - archaeologists make greater leaps with just a piece of stone.
So in reviewing this latest I have this update:
Marriage cert ordered - estimated dispatch date 28 October - must have caught up with the panic March buying backlog!
Toni - have looked through pages of stuff in the vicinity of where Caroline senior was living at the time of birth looking for a likely candidate - nothing found.
What I mis-stated was that when I said I had no census records for Robert Andrews - I meant from 1871 back - with 1871 being the key one. Yes, the census is a snapshot but in this case, due the proximity of the birth, I feel, it would be a vital aid.
Re-tracing my searching I know find I have note of a Robert LAXTON Andrews b. Q1 1847 in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.
Carole - thanks for finding the 1861 and 1871 info. I do think this may be coming together now as we can see in 1871 that Aunt Mary LAXTON was living with the Andrews.
And yes; Angelina another clue.
I don't have access to the 1911 census details but my cousin has literally just emailed me to say that both Caroline and Robert where in Colchester Union Workhouse - it was described on the census as The Royal Eastern Counties Institution for idiots imbiciles and the feeble minded!
Neil
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Marriage cert arrived today.
No father given for CAR Flectcher. :(
Witnesses were Bessie Gant (Groom's sister) and CAR Fletcher's half/full brother - Harry Andrews.
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Hi
The asylum you mentioned was indeed for imbeciles and was a very severe looking building next to Colchester North Station
It was the first building you saw when you got off the trains
There is a listing on ancestry of a tree which has a caroline angelina rebecca fletch / andrews daughter of Robert and caroline even has a phot of her
Any relation or is it your tree If not I guess you will need to sign on
Ronnie
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hi again
on the 1851 census he is listed as at 27 gold street cambridge parish of st andrew the less
robert andrews 28 clockmaker from cambridge shire
catherine andrews 29 from shorefitch london
Robert L Andrews 4 fom cambridge
ronnie
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Hi Ronnie
That'll be my cousin 'Boxted Boy'. He posted on this forum as well about the workhouse: http://www.rootschat.com/forum/index.php?topic=491595.0 - not that I understood that topic; was too 'local' for me!
He has since explained and there were (I think) four buildings and only one was for 'imbeciles' - turns out our pair were in the workhouse section.
I have an account on ancestry as well but it is 'private' - I let Boxted Boy get all the grief!
I just realised after posting above that I don't have a 'Harry Andrews', could have sworn he is a (half) brother. I know I have a Henry but thought I had a Harry too! Better sort that mess out!
Neil
PS just saw the 1851 info - cheers - had found that anyway - thanks for the effort though.
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Dear Neil
Re Whats' the probablilty? I have a Robert Andrews, a Merchant's Clerk who married an Elizabeth Frohock on 23rd Sept in 1819 in Waterbeach (IGI) their children were Robert Andrews born around June 1822 , John Frohock Andrews, born 1820 and Jane Andrews born 1825, all Waterbeach, Robert Andrews married Catharine Ann White in Milton next Gravesend in 13th May 1846, their children were Clara Emma, Albert Alexander, Henry William, Angelina Peg/Marguarite, Charles Edward, moved to Hitchin in Herts sometime after 1853...are these linked to your family because there was a son, a robert l andrews born 1838 in Waterbeach, but out of wedlock was much rarer then, may be just a co-incidence, but a hell of a one...
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I'm going on a hunch that this is him in 1861 in Hertfordshire.
You will be particularly interested in the 1871 entry a daughter called Angelina - too coincidental I think!!
1861
Robert Andrews 38 watch & clock maker b Waterbeach Cambs
Catherine A 37 b Middlesex
Robert L 14 b Cambs
Henry W 10 ditto
Albert A 7 ditto
Charles E 5 b Hitchin Herts
Clara E 2 ditto
RG9 Piece 819 Folio 5 Page 3
1871 for Hitchin
Robert Andrews 48 watch & clock maker b Waterbeach Cambs
Catherine Ann 47 b London
Albert Alexander 17 b Cambs
Charles Edward 15 b Hitchin
Clara Emma 12 b Hitchin
Angelina A 9 b Hitchin
Mary Laxton 73 aunt b Cambs
RG10; Piece: 1368; Folio: 22; Page: 36
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Hi Carole
This is my family, Albert Alexander, 7 years in 1861 is my great grandfather, where is the laxton connection? Catharine A is Catharine Ann White from St Pauls,Shadwell, Tower Hamlets, born 1818, to george and ann white...
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Hi Romarin
I have the all same Andrews as you mention above in my tree except I have Robert Laxton Andrews as being born in 1847 not 1838. This would be the year after Robert Andrews and Catherine Ann White married. The next inline was, as you mention, Henry Williams in 1851.
My line descends from Robert Laxton Andrews and Caroline Fletcher. However, I can't be certain that RLA is the father of the first daughter to Caroline - which is what made me start this thread.
Seems a lot of out of wedlock in this side!
Neil
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Hi Neil
Thanks for this, sorry if my email was not clear, henry is Henry William Andrews, who was one of our great uncles, my line descends from Albert Alexander Andrews and Martha Abbott, which is how we ended up in Wolverhampton, any info I can give let me know...
thanks
Romarin (rosemary andrews)
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Hi Rosemary - or should I say 'cousin'?!! I've sent you a personal message so that I can let you see my online tree - if you want to! Neil